520 
FXUS63 KFGF 031733
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth today.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Saturday evening across parts of eastern North Dakota and far
  northwest Minnesota. 

- Potential for widespread 1 inch or more of rain for parts of
  northeast North Dakota Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Temperatures have already warmed into the low to mid 80s across
the Red River Valley, and are knocking on 80 degrees elsewhere.
Updated temperatures to reflect this. Had to go all the way up
to the NBM 90th percentile to find something generally
reflective of current temperatures, and still had to raise 
those values by a couple of degrees. A very warm day for early 
October. 

UPDATE
Issued at 954 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Cirrus clouds are streaming in from the west, bringing mostly
sunny skies that will continue through the rest of the day. 
Updated grids with obs, otherwise no major updates needed at 
this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The fog patches around Bemidji and Park Rapids have moved out so
removed any fog. Satellite shows some high clouds and patches of
mid clouds. Likely rather similar thru the day. South winds
picking up and should be a very warm day once again. No change
ended to winds, sky or temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb pattern shows center of upper ridge over Kansas and
Oklahoma and a 500 mb trough from Washington sate to central
California with center of a strong upper low just north of San
Francisco. T-storms noted with this upper low in California.
Spread of mostly high and mid level moisture ahead of upper
trough from Nevada into Montana and then spreading east thru
southern Manitoba and parts of NW Ontario. For today and
tonight...some embedded weak impulses at 500 mb will bring a
chance for showers or a few t-storms mainly north of the border.
Some slight chance for precip right along Canadian border,
mostly late evening and overnight Friday Langdon area to
Warroad. Otherwise dry conditions thru tonight across the fcst
area.  


...Near record warmth today...

Forecast area in the warm sector today with 850 mb temps 
expected to climb 2-3 degrees 12z Fri to 00z Sat. Winds will be 
southerly but pressure gradient isnt terribly strong with sfc 
winds more in the 15-25 mph range sustained with gusts 35 mph. 
mixed layer winds 30 kts within the RRV, highest central RRV. 
Highs today once again on high end of guidance and seeing such 
850 and 925 mb temps warmer than on Thursday when highs at GFK 
and Fargo were 88 and 87 respectively, dont see why highs would 
not reach 90. There are some high cloud patches around, but 
continuity based on the past few days says unless thick impact 
on warming limited. Record highs for today are warmer than they
were Thursday....GFK the exception with record database from
1941 to current shows prev record high Friday 85 in 1976. Grand
Forks UND/NWS and Fargo well into the 90s from 1922. 


...Marginal risk of severe storms Saturday evening and heavy 
rain potential...

Saturday will be an interesting day, as much depends on frontal
movement, location. Soundings show a sufficient warm layer and a
few hundred CIN ahead of the front Saturday aftn in warm sector
and models, NBM used for forecast I do think correctly keep warm
sector dry thru 00z Sun. Main surface low develops from
northeast Colorado into central South Dakota Saturday and then
looks to move to near Fargo Saturday night and then toward
Baudette Sunday. With warm sector likely capped, initial shower
and t-storms likely right along or a 20-30 mile area west of
cold front in an area between 850 mb cold front and sfc cold
front where there will remain 500-800 j/kg MUCAPE and atmosphere
is not capped. It is this area where SPC did maintain a marginal
risk for a few storms that may approach severe limits Saturday
evening just behind front from far NW MN to south central ND.
But compared to 24 hours ago,  risk of severe does look less. 
Deformation zone steady rain looks to set up Bismarck area thru
Devils Lake to southeast Manitoba into parts of NW Ontario.
Ensembles indicate GFS a bit farther west with max rain band
west of Bismarck to Rugby area, ECMWF a tad more east (with max
closer to GFK) and Canadian Global ensembles in between closer
to NBM.  

Rain moves out late Sunday the cooler air moves in with gusty
northwest winds. As skies clear late Sunday night and more
likely Monday night and Tuesday night frost and freeze potential
increases as high pressure moves southeast from Saskatchewan
into the Red River valley Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period, but LLWS and gusty winds will
still bring aviation impacts. Southerly winds will increase 
throughout the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will
decrease slightly overnight, but a low level jet kicks in. This
will bring up to 50 knots of LLWS, and maintain surface wind 
gusts up to 20 knots. Winds should start Saturday off a bit 
lower, but an approaching cold front will cause winds to shift 
to the north at KDVL at the tail end of the TAF period. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty