459 
FXUS63 KEAX 031726
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue.

- Next notable chances for rain come late Sunday into Monday.

- Cooler, more seasonal conditions expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Satellite imagery over the CONUS is fairly similar to what has 
been seen over the past few days. The jet stream maintains its 
generally northern position with a stout relatively stationary 
high pressure dominating the southern Plains and the eastern 
CONUS. This has resulted in a prolonged pattern of calm 
conditions, above average temperatures. Southerly flow at low to
midlevels combined with solar heating from clear skies keeps 
temperatures up to more summertime levels. Earlier guidance 
pointed toward high temperatures today eclipsing 90 degrees. 
While consensus has backed off mainly due to the weaker 
disorganized southerly low to midlevel flow, there is still as 
notable chance of temperatures breaking 90F (~25% chance). The 
best chance for this would be if solar heating can over perform 
expectations combating the general cold air advection aloft and 
downward mixing of this cooler air. The good news is this upper 
downward mixing of drier air has kept dew points and relative 
humidities comfortable through the course of this abnormally 
warm stretch. 

Satellite also shows a digging low pressure system across the 
Pacific Coast. This will be the driving force to change the pattern 
late this weekend. This system continues to dig southward into the 
Rocky Mountains compressing the pressure gradient across the central 
CONUS. This brings the potential for breezy conditions Saturday and 
Sunday with wind gusts potentially reaching 20-30 MPH. This could 
also give a slight boost of warm air advection which could elevate 
temperatures Saturday and Sunday slightly higher than current 
forecasts once again approaching 90 degrees. 

As the trough pivots and begins to lift northeastward, strong 
frontogenesis along with a geographically compressing moisture and 
temperature gradient initiate showers and thunderstorms late Sunday 
night into Monday. While the boundaries look to be fairly stark, the 
late night timing of convective initiation appears to tamper strong 
to severe storms chances. Models do show some shear and marginal 
instability, but LLJ dynamics favor stronger to severe storm chances 
being further west across central KS at this time. This frontal 
boundary is expected to slowly work its way into the region resulting 
in chances for showers and thunderstorms sticking around portions of 
NW MO and far NE KS through Tuesday night. While storms are not 
expected to be continuous, the long temporal period of storm 
potential could result in some flooding, especially with PWAT values 
constant at 1-1.5 inches throughout. However, the ground continues 
to remain dry and could take a fair bit of water before flooding 
becomes a significant concern. At this juncture excessive runoff 
looks to be the primary catalyst for potential flooding, but again, 
the overall outlook remains marginal.

Behind the front, winds shift back out of the NW ushering in cooler 
air. Temperatures return back toward seasonal normals with highs 
dipping to the low to mid 70s by midweek. Long term guidance does 
suggest more expansive pressure systems traversing the continent; 
however, 500mb flow remains a bit more open across the midlatitude 
CONUS bringing some more potential opportunities for rain to help cut 
into the precipitation deficit as well progress further into fall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. A
cu field has already begun forming over eastern MO and will
continue to trend farther west. Therefore, added a FEW050 group
for terminal sites. Winds will remain mostly out of the south 
for the next 24 hours. Occasional gusts to 18-21 kts will be 
possible with daytime mixing late tomorrow morning/afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier