330 
FXUS63 KTOP 031708
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in 
the upper 80s; 10-15 degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances return Sunday night and persist into Tuesday 
morning. Additionally, small precipitation chances (10-30%) may 
exist mid week and into the weekend.

- Cooler air builds in by Tuesday returning temperatures closer
  to average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A quiet morning is underway across northeastern Kansas as upper-
level ridging remains overhead. Looking at other synoptic features 
around the US shows a large trough over the PNW and northern CA 
region, zonal flow and jet streak moisture along the US/Canada 
border and broad ridging over the southeastern US. With the upper 
ridge expected to remain parked over the central US into the 
weekend, expect warm temperatures to persist with highs in the upper 
80s each afternoon. By Saturday, the aforementioned western trough 
will begin to push into the central Rockies and deepen a surface 
cyclone across eastern Colorado. This will further tighten pressure 
gradients across the state leading to a well-mixed and gusty 
Saturday afternoon. Some across central and north-central Kansas 
could see southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph at times during the 
afternoon hours Saturday. The main wave lifts north into the 
northern Plains by Sunday, setting up a jet streak that will extend 
from northeast Colorado to Lake Superior. Several waves embedded in 
the southwesterly flow will move across north-central KS and central 
Nebraska and help to return rain chances to the region. These waves 
will help to push a frontal boundary into north-central KS by Sunday 
evening beginning the first round of rain chances. This boundary is 
expected to stall and keep most QPF confined to north-central, 
central and far northeastern Kansas Sunday evening and into early 
Monday morning. 

Through the day Monday, the surface boundary will slowly try and 
slide southeast through eastern Kansas spreading rain and storm 
chances (30-40%) across the region. There is still a fair amount of 
discrepancy with where most QPF will fall Monday into Monday night 
as most forcing seeming to be confined to the 850/700mb boundaries 
which remain further northwest in north-central Kansas. This may 
also help to keep the cooler air closer to northern Kansas Monday 
afternoon with warm temperatures across east-central Kansas. Lack of 
precipitation and CAA keep temperatures in east-central KS in the mid 
80s Monday afternoon barring a significant southeast shift in 
precipitation in future model runs. Tuesday should see the cool 
surface high slide in from the north bringing relief from the warm 
weather as highs top out in the low to mid 70s. The remainder of the 
week and into the weekend looks closer to average for temperatures 
with some low-end (10-30%) chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR with main concern being southerly winds throughout forecast
period. Sustained speeds from 10 to 15 kts this afternoon with
occasional gusts abv 20 kts through 00Z before weakening below
10 kts overnight at KTOP/KFOE. Forecast soundings suggest
stronger low level winds and more mixy sfc conditions at KMHK with
a 40 kt southerly LLJ developing. Don't believe it is stout 
enough to cause LLWS especially if winds stay up around 10 kts. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Prieto