540 
FXUS63 KGLD 031701
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1101 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  through Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Strong southerly winds will develop across the entire area on
  Saturday. Sustained winds at 30-40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph
  will create hazardous travel conditions, especially for high 
  profile vehicles on west-east routes, such as I-70, where 
  cross winds will be strongest. Areas of blowing dust may 
  further exacerbate travel difficulties. 

- Strong southerly winds, above normal temperatures and low
  relative humidity (15-25%) will also create fire weather
  conditions on Friday and Saturday. Outdoor burning is not 
  advised.
  

- Cooler, with normal to below normal temperatures Sunday 
  through the middle portion of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

No significant change to prior forecast reasoning and
expectations through tonight. On Saturday, deep vertical mixing
and a tightening MSLP-850 mb height gradient on the eastern 
periphery of a developing/deepening lee cyclone (in advance of 
an approaching upper trough) will foster strong southerly winds
across the entire area. 00 UTC 10/03 GFS forecast soundings 
indicate 35-45 knot southerly flow will be present within and 
throughout a ~10,000 ft mixed-layer (from the surface to ~600 
mb), suggesting sustained winds on the order of 30-40 mph and 
occasional gusts up to 55 mph during the afternoon and early 
evening (generally prior to sunset). Wind of this magnitude will
create hazardous travel conditions, especially for high profile
vehicles on west-east routes, such as I-70, where cross winds 
will be strongest. Areas of blowing dust may further exacerbate 
travel difficulties. Strong southerly winds, above normal 
temperatures, dry antecedent conditions and low relative 
humidity (15-25%) will foster dangerous fire weather conditions 
across the entire area. Outdoor burning is *not* advised on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

15Z Water Vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad H4 
ridge across southern half of country with strong shortwave 
trough moving across the ridge in the southeast US and a strong 
trough continues to build off the west coast. At the surface 
weak trough was noted at the surface with some residual fog 
clinging to river valleys in the northeast section of the area.

Main forecast concern will be Saturday with potential for 
strong winds, fire weather, thunderstorms and blowing dust.

Tonight-Friday...Little in the way of forcing for ascent 
expected through the period as aforementioned ridge remains 
primary weather feature across the region. While some sfc based 
instability expected this afternoon, vertical moisture profiles 
are very shallow and without any focusing mechanism do not see 
much if any potential for any diurnally driven storms today. 
Only real sensible weather concern for the overnight hours will 
be potential for fog developing in the eastern fringes of the 
warning area. Given the valley fog observed this morning and at 
least some weak moisture advection overnight,would think similar
scenario would play out tonight. Operational models not really 
pointing to this scenario, but based on expected pattern a small
chance of fog seems reasonable. Similar pattern expected today,
although winds will increase throughout the day. Some moisture 
advection anticipated with persistent southeastern flow, but 
with H7 thermal ridge advecting over region strong cap will 
inhibit any potential thunderstorm development.

Friday night through Saturday night...Strong H5 trough will 
approach the four corners region overnight, resulting in a 
deepening sfc trough to the lee of the Rockies. As a result, 
winds will remain breezy through the night as winds just above 
the surface intensify to around 50 kts. Given the time of day 
this will occur (03-06Z) I do not think there is a strong 
potential for damaging wind gusts to occur overnight, but it 
bears watching closely. Regardless of the maximum magnitude of 
the winds overnight, breezy conditions will likely continue all 
night keeping low temperatures well above climatological normals
and limiting near surface RH recovery overnight. While that 
will not be a big issue during the night time, it may play a 
role on Saturday afternoon and evening.

After several days of full sunshine and abundant sunshine 
expected on Saturday morning combined with poor overnight 
humidity recovery expect soils to be somewhat primed to be 
lofted by strong winds Saturday afternoon. While confidence is 
high that soils will be susceptible to being blown around, 
confidence not as high in the magnitude of the winds and to a 
lesser degree the fire danger threat. While last few runs of 
ECMWF ensemble have several members gusting into the 50-55mph 
range, the bulk of members keep gusts in the 40-45 mph range 
which aligns with latest GEFS, Canadian ensemble and operational
model runs. While the trend towards lower wind speeds does tend
to lower confidence in both dust and fire weather threat, 
pattern does give me concern that stronger solutions still may 
be realized and do not plan on changing much in the way of 
messaging until data trends solidify more. Should stronger winds
and blowing dust event materialize, most likely scenario will 
be several plumes developing in afternoon and being lofted well 
into the air downwind from the source, likely limiting dust 
impacts to the immediate area around dust sources. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will impact area north of Interstate 
70 overnight Saturday behind cold front. Severe weather threat 
is very limited and will likely occur only if storms can develop
in warm sector ahead of front where damaging winds will be the 
primary threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

In the extended (Sunday through Thursday)...Cooler and more 
unsettled conditions are anticipated through next week as colder
air becomes much more established over the area through the 
start of the week. Initial cold front on Saturday night will 
lower highs back down to near normal values, with a reinforcing 
shot of cold air moving into the area Monday keeping highs below
normal through much of the work week. Abundant cloud cover with
front in the vicinity will like hold low temperatures up 
somewhat, so as it stands it does not look like there will be a 
risk of a freeze through Thursday morning. Precipitation 
potential will be strongly tied to location of the front, 
although given expected pattern do not anticipate much in the 
way of a severe thunderstorm threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1054 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Wind will be the main story for the 24-36 hours or so. Southerly
winds are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon gusting
to around 25-30 knots with the strongest more likely for MCK
where a stronger jet streak is located. A low level jet will
continue to strengthen this evening and overnight leading to
continued breezy to gusty winds and low level wind shear as the
jet aloft strengthens to 50-60 knots. As the nocturnal
inversion breaks around 14-15Z stronger wind gusts around 40-45
knots are forecast to begin mixing to the surface for each
terminal. Some dust may be possible for each terminal leading to
either visibility reductions or a ceiling due to haze towards 
the latter portion of this TAF period and into the next which
may impact flight categories, confidence is not high enough at
this time to include in the TAF however.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...Trigg