196 
FXUS62 KFFC 031525 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1125 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025



...New Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

	- Dry conditions will persist through Saturday amid seasonal
      temperatures and an easterly breeze.

    - A surge of tropical moisture will bring rain chances to 
      Georgia between Sunday afternoon and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Have adjusted dewpoints down a couple degrees overall today as 
the 12z sounding indicated a very dry layer of air between ~650 mb
and ~800 mb. Still, relative humidity area-wide will remain above
the threshold for a Fire Danger Statement (relative humidity of 
25% or lower).


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Dry weather with largely seasonal temperatures will persist through 
Saturday. Upper ridging remains in place today across the eastern US 
while surface high pressure currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic 
region will only shift marginally eastward offshore by Saturday. As 
such, a weak CAD situation will remain in place through the short 
term with a refreshing northeasterly breeze today gradually shifting 
more easterly on Saturday. With the northeast breeze today, 
dewpoints will remain relatively drier (mainly in the 50s), while 
afternoon highs reach primarily the upper 70s to low 80s.

On Saturday, the upper ridge axis will shift farther eastward. 
Meanwhile, moisture will begin to creep back northwestward into the 
area with dewpoints returning to the 60s as a tropical wave in the 
western Atlantic moves into the Florida peninsula. High clouds will 
also be on the increase on Saturday, though PoPs will remain 
relegated farther south and east of the area. Temperatures will only 
nudge upward a degree or two on Saturday with fairly pleasant 
conditions remaining, though the gradually increasing dewpoints will 
begin to herald deeper moisture return by the latter half of the 
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Tropical Moisture Surge to Start Next Week:

An easterly wave will reach Florida on Saturday, then it will 
track northwestwards into Georgia on Sunday. As the wave 
approaches and upper level ridging weakens, a surge of tropical 
moisture will move north. Guidance from the GEFS and EPS suggests 
mean precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range by 
Sunday night. This should lead to widespread cloud cover on Sunday
and Monday. The higher moisture concentration will be accompanied
by saturated sounding profiles that will limit instability and 
thunderstorm chances Sunday night and Monday. Rain should still 
occur though, with the greatest rainfall potential anticipated 
between Sunday evening and Monday as the trough axis swings 
through Georgia. This appears to be the kind of event where 
rainfall totals are limited by a lack of instability, despite very
favorable precipitable water values. Guidance form the GEFS and 
EPS continue to favor a very limited potential for rainfall 
amounts over 1 inch. This looks especially true for northern and 
western Georgia where the probabilities of over 1 inch of rainfall
by Monday evening remain below 20% in both ensembles. The odds of
an inch of rain are higher in east central Georgia (near 50%). 
The tropical moisture should linger in the region on Tuesday and 
Wednesday, with precipitable water values at or above 1.5 inches 
both days. This should allow for some diurnally driven shower and 
thunderstorm activity both days. The portions of north and central
Georgia that get thunderstorms will have a decent opportunity for
total rain amounts over an inch by Wednesday night. 

High temperature trends for the start of the week will remain 
relatively flat. Ensemble guidance has consistently suggest 
widespread highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, and nothing has 
shifted with the latest model runs. Elevated surface dewpoints, 
largely in the 60s, will combine with cloud cover to hinder 
overnight radiational cooling. As a consequence overnight lows will 
be 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages Sunday, Monday and 
Tuesday. This translates to morning temperature readings in the 
upper 60s. 

The Second Half of the Workweek:

An upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes should push a 
cold front towards Georgia Wednesday or Thursday. The fronts passage 
may increase thunderstorm chances, then in its wake a drier airmass 
should filter into the state. Guidance from the ensembles latches 
onto to this drier airmass, and consequently favors dry weather in 
the state Thursday and Friday. Widespread highs in the 70s are 
probable behind the front, while falling dewpoints should lead to 
more reasonable overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period characterized 
by mainly increasing high clouds as well as FEW/SCT cu 4-6 kft 
today. Winds will remain E/NE at 7-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts,
mainly 14-21Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  56  78  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         79  60  81  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Blairsville     74  51  74  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Cartersville    80  58  81  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus        82  62  83  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     76  57  78  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Macon           81  62  83  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Rome            82  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Peachtree City  79  58  81  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         84  65  84  68 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Martin