312 
FXUS63 KLMK 031355
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
955 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Chance for an isolated shower along our western counties this 
   morning before chances move to southern Indiana this afternoon. 
 
*  Dry and warm weather continue for most through this weekend. 

*  Rain chances increase early next week ahead of a cold front 
   arriving on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A cluster of showers is currently meandering over our far western 
CWA, with the greatest concentration around Ohio County. Expect 
"chain reaction" type triggering to continue in the presence of some 
weak ML CAPE values around 250 J/KG. Haven't observed any lightning, 
and don't expect much given very weak mid level lapse rates, and 
that inversion between 500 and 600 mb. Raised pops where current 
precipitation is most widespread, and also expanded the measurable 
pops northward into SW Indiana a bit more.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

An upper ridge now covers the whole CONUS except for the 
Northwest coast. Surface high pressure is now centered over New 
England and stretches southwest towards Chattanooga. This continues 
to keep things quiet over the Lower Ohio Valley. Scattered cirrus 
continues to stream to the northeast over the CWA west of an upper 
high over eastern Kentucky. Anticyclonic flow around the surface 
high will push precipitable water levels to near 1.5" this morning 
near and west of Ohio County. PWATs over an inch will remain in this 
area as well as work north into southern Indiana. Dew points in this 
area will reach into the low 60s with a few areas hitting the mid 
60s. This once again could cause a few isolated pop-up showers to 
develop early this morning with chances moving towards southern 
Indiana later this afternoon as a shortwave pushes east across the 
region. Soundings show a lot of dry air near the surface with 
limited instability. Wind shear continues to be weak. With that 
being said, most will enjoy another sunny dry day. Highs are 
expected to climb into the mid 80s over most of the CWA. A few areas 
near the Lake Cumberland area and off to the east into eastern 
Kentucky may only see the low 80s.  

Expect any remaining afternoon/evening shower and/or thunderstorm 
activity to fade as diurnal warming is lost, but as the shortwave 
continues to move east overnight, a low chance for a shower will 
remain around that Ohio and surrounding county area. Mostly clear 
skies with near calm winds will allow lows to fall into the low 50s 
to low 60s. Some patchy fog could result.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Saturday and Sunday, upper ridging and surface high pressure remain 
over the Lower Ohio Valley, resulting in a mostly dry and sunny 
forecast with high temperatures in the mid 80s each day. Lows fall 
into the low 50s to low 60s each night.    

Monday through Wednesday, the upper ridge slides east until it's 
running northeast of Maine and back to the southwest towards 
Arizona. Northwest of the ridge an upper trough drops south over the 
Pacific around an upper low over northern Nevada. At the surface, 
the high that was over the Ohio Valley will sit off the Atlantic 
Coast, funneling moisture northwest over the Southeast towards the 
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys ahead of an approaching cold front. 
Isolated shower chances on Monday will become scattered chances on 
Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the cold front dropping southeast 
through the CWA. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are expected 
to be in the mid 80s on Monday, either side of 80 on Tuesday, but by 
Wednesday, highs only reach into the 70s.  

Thursday and Friday, cold air advection ahead of a passing surface 
high that will drop southeast through the Great Lakes will keep the 
upper 60s to mid 70s around for Thursday under mostly sunny skies, 
but as the high passes, warm air advection will arrive on Friday, 
lifting temperatures to the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The forecast remains unchanged. VFR conditions are expected to 
remain at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Some streaming 
cirrus will continue with limited cumulus coverage this afternoon.
Winds will remain under 10 knots out of a general southerly 
direction.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW