365 
FXUS65 KVEF 031146
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
446 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the 
  region today, with increased precipitation chances for the Great 
  Basin and eastern Sierra.

* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend 
  before rising back to near normal next week.

* Dry weather is expected from Saturday at least through Wednesday. 
  Beginning Thursday, there is a chance for tropical moisture to be 
  pulled into the Desert Southwest, but there is a lot of 
  uncertainty.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. Early morning satellite loop 
showed two bands of clouds associated with the incoming trough - one 
located in northwest Inyo and western Esmeralda counties and the 
other located in Clark and Lincoln counties. Area radars showed weak 
returns over the Sierra Nevada with occasional lightning strikes. 
Surface obs showed warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours ago 
with areas of gusty southwest winds. The winds will be the main 
forecast concern today. The Wind Advisories for the Spring Mountains 
and most of the San Bernardino County deserts still look good. Just 
north of the northwest tip of the Spring Mountains, Desert Rock has 
started to gust early this morning. There has been a history of 
isolated downslope winds in this area during the early part of wind 
events before the mean wind vector veers from southerly to 
southwesterly. Since this will affect Highway 95 but not Pahrump 
(the population center in the same forecast zone), will handle it in 
conjunction with the highway patrol rather than expanding the 
Advisory. Farther north, chances for showers and thunderstorms along 
with high mountain snow will swing east through Inyo, Esmeralda, 
Nye, and Lincoln counties today and tonight. Amounts should be light 
and more beneficial than hazardous, barring any training 
thunderstorms. The main low will exit to the northeast Saturday 
morning, leaving behind a weak baggy trough for the first half of 
next week. This will result in a slow, steady warming trend from 
about five degrees below normal Saturday to near normal Wednesday. 
From Thursday onward, forecast confidence is very low. By that time, 
the next low in the westerlies is expected to be nearing the West 
Coast, with the usual uncertainty in the exact position/track/depth. 
At the same time, presumed Hurricane Priscilla is forecast to be 
somewhere west of the southern tip of the Baja. Will the low in the 
westerlies be far enough south and east, and will Priscilla be far 
enough north, for tropical moisture to be pulled north into the 
Desert Southwest? Well...maybe. We can't be sure that it will, but 
we also can't be sure that it won't. Timing is also a big question. 
Some model solutions show chances for showers and storms southeast 
of I-15 as early as Thursday, others show a stormy weekend, and 
others keep the moisture away from our area altogether. Will 
continue to monitor trends.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Early
this morning, winds will generally be southerly with some 
variability between 160-190 true, with intermittent gusts to 
around 15-18KT. By mid morning, winds shift to the southwest, 
increasing to 15-20KT sustained with gusts to 25-30KT, peaking 
during late afternoon and early evening. After sunset, winds 
diminish somewhat, with a brief lull expected overnight ahead of a
northwesterly wind shift as a front moves into the Valley just 
after daybreak. Northwesterly winds will become gusty by mid 
morning, continuing beyond the end of the period. VFR conditions 
prevail with FEW-SCT clouds around 25kft.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...A gusty day is ahead
for the region, with winds shifting to the southwest by mid to 
late morning, becoming elevated and gusty with gusts to 25-35KT 
common from late morning through early evening. The strongest 
winds are expected mid to late afternoon through sunset, with 
strong southwesterly to westerly winds persisting much of the 
night across the western Mojave. An exception is across the Owens 
Valley, where gusty northerly to northwesterly winds are expected,
peaking at 25-35KT this afternoon and evening. Additionally, a 
cold front moving southward into the region will be accompanied by
a northwesterly wind shift, expected to move through southern 
Nevada terminals near or just beyond the end of the period. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT clouds around 
25kft, except in portions of the Owens Valley where showers are 
expected over the Sierra and White Mountains, resulting in 
ceilings around 8-12kft this morning, along with potential light 
rain in the vicinity of KBIH.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Phillipson

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

098 
FXUS65 KVEF 031728
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
446 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the 
  region today, with increased precipitation chances for the Great 
  Basin and eastern Sierra.

* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend 
  before rising back to near normal next week.

* Dry weather is expected from Saturday at least through Wednesday. 
  Beginning Thursday, there is a chance for tropical moisture to be 
  pulled into the Desert Southwest, but there is a lot of 
  uncertainty.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. Early morning satellite loop 
showed two bands of clouds associated with the incoming trough - one 
located in northwest Inyo and western Esmeralda counties and the 
other located in Clark and Lincoln counties. Area radars showed weak 
returns over the Sierra Nevada with occasional lightning strikes. 
Surface obs showed warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours ago 
with areas of gusty southwest winds. The winds will be the main 
forecast concern today. The Wind Advisories for the Spring Mountains 
and most of the San Bernardino County deserts still look good. Just 
north of the northwest tip of the Spring Mountains, Desert Rock has 
started to gust early this morning. There has been a history of 
isolated downslope winds in this area during the early part of wind 
events before the mean wind vector veers from southerly to 
southwesterly. Since this will affect Highway 95 but not Pahrump 
(the population center in the same forecast zone), will handle it in 
conjunction with the highway patrol rather than expanding the 
Advisory. Farther north, chances for showers and thunderstorms along 
with high mountain snow will swing east through Inyo, Esmeralda, 
Nye, and Lincoln counties today and tonight. Amounts should be light 
and more beneficial than hazardous, barring any training 
thunderstorms. The main low will exit to the northeast Saturday 
morning, leaving behind a weak baggy trough for the first half of 
next week. This will result in a slow, steady warming trend from 
about five degrees below normal Saturday to near normal Wednesday. 
From Thursday onward, forecast confidence is very low. By that time, 
the next low in the westerlies is expected to be nearing the West 
Coast, with the usual uncertainty in the exact position/track/depth. 
At the same time, presumed Hurricane Priscilla is forecast to be 
somewhere west of the southern tip of the Baja. Will the low in the 
westerlies be far enough south and east, and will Priscilla be far 
enough north, for tropical moisture to be pulled north into the 
Desert Southwest? Well...maybe. We can't be sure that it will, but 
we also can't be sure that it won't. Timing is also a big question. 
Some model solutions show chances for showers and storms southeast 
of I-15 as early as Thursday, others show a stormy weekend, and 
others keep the moisture away from our area altogether. Will 
continue to monitor trends.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty 
southwest winds of 27 to 32 knots will persist into early evening, 
with a 25 percent chance of gusts reaching 35 knots before 03Z. 
After sunset, winds will ease somewhat, with a brief lull possible 
late tonight ahead of a northwesterly wind shift as a front moves 
into the Valley shortly after daybreak. A period of gusty 
northwesterly winds is expected during the late morning, followed by 
decreasing speeds tomorrow afternoon and evening. VFR conditions 
will prevail through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT clouds around 
25kft AGL into tonight, then becoming SKC tomorrow. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds will 
continue across the region into this evening, with gusts of 25 to 35 
mph common. Winds will remain elevated across the western Mojave 
Desert through the night while other areas should decrease to less 
than 15 knots. A cold front moving south into the region will be 
accompanied by a northwesterly wind shift, which is expected to move 
through southern Nevada terminals tomorrow morning and the Colorado 
River Valley sites by midday. VFR conditions will prevail in most 
areas with FEW-SCT clouds around 25kft through tonight, then 
becoming mainly SKC tomorrow. The exception will be central Nye and 
northern Lincoln Counties, where a few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are possible through 03Z today.  CIGs down to 10kft 
AGL are possible in the vicinity of this activity. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan 
AVIATION...Planz 

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: 
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter