979 
FXUS63 KMPX 031115
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
615 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with 
  near record highs and lows through Sunday.

- Windy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with gusts of 35
  to 50 mph possible, strongest on Sunday.

- Much cooler next week with areas of frost possible Tuesday  
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A mostly clear night across southern Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin, but temperatures are still holding solidly in the mid
60s for most (except western MN, with upper 50s). The overnight
low temperatures are only around 5 degrees cooler than the 
typical daytime highs this time of year (66 degrees). Patchy fog
is prevalent across central Minnesota, particularly around and
north of St. Cloud, but should quickly disperse this morning.
Scattered visibility reductions are being reported as a result. 

Today will be similar to yesterday, but warmer yet. A few
locations along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN have a chance
at 90 (although MSP got close yesterday with a high of 87). A
deep trough continues to slowly propagate eastward from the 
west coast. This continues to allow a ridge to build and 
bringing the heat with it. This stretch of well above normal 
temperatures will continue through most of the weekend until a 
cold front pushes through on Sunday. Backtracking to later 
today, the low- level jet will strengthen, bringing gusty 
southerly winds to the region. The potential magnitude for the 
winds continues to fluctuate, but forecast soundings and NBM 
probabilities suggest at least 30-35 kt gusts are likely through
the weekend, with a few 40-45+ kt gusts not out of question. 
The potential for a Wind Advisory remains on the table.

The cold front will swing through Sunday evening (afternoon in
western MN), quickly dropping our near-record temps back to only
slightly above normal. The NAM has the trough progressing east
slightly slower than the Canadian and ECMWF, which would mean
the heat would last longer into the day on Sunday. Temperatures
will drop 30 to 35 degrees in a matter of about 6 hours,
bottoming out in the upper 40s and low 50s early Monday morning.
This will feel quite chilly after we have acclimated to the
summer-like temps these past few days, but they are right at
normal for early October.

Looking ahead to mid-week, seasonable highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s (maybe 30s Wed AM) will be met with another rebound
to warmer temperatures by late week. This being said, there are
large discrepancies between models when it comes to the late
week forecast with almost a 20 degree spread between the ECMWF
and Canadian/GFS. What can be said with medium high confidence
is that the early to mid-week forecast should contain pleasant
fall-like weather as high pressure settles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR through the period. Mid-level CU is expected mid to late 
morning across the area. Southerly winds will increase late 
tonight as the LLJ strengthens, with gusts ranging between 
20-25kts especially in western MN. Winds are expected to remain 
elevated or increase through Saturday into Sunday. A few hours 
of 40kt LLWS are possible late tonight in conjunction with the 
arrival of the gusty winds. Have added WS to AXN, RWF, STC, and 
MSP as a result. We could see the addition of WS to the 
remaining sites with the 18Z tafs.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 20-25G30-35 kts. 
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15-20G30-40kts. 
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Record lows/highs for this weekend:

		FRI			SAT			SUN

MSP    72/90	   68/89       63/88
STC    64/88       64/88       58/89
EAU    72/89       67/86       64/84

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...PV
CLIMATE...Borghoff