198 
FXUS64 KAMA 031103
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
603 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the 
  Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s 
  to lower 90s.

- Breezy to gusty southwesterly winds are expected across the
  Northwestern Panhandles Saturday afternoon.

- Uptick in moisture early to mid next week with a medium chance 
  (30- 60%) of Wednesday high temperatures below 70 degrees across
  all the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Latest CAM analysis has kept a weak surface boundary present over
the Central Panhandles. While chances are less than 5%, for
precipitation, most CAMS have been using this boundary as way to
keep cloud cover present during the afternoon and evening. This
cloud cover, much like it did yesterday, will aid in keeping
temperatures down slightly with locations only reaching into the
low 90s at their worst. Meanwhile in the northwestern portions of
the Panhandles, models are expecting a mid to low-level jet to
form over the afternoon period. This jet will have ample
opportunity to bleed down in these dry conditions allowing for
some breezy to gusty southwesterly winds across the northwest.
These winds only look to be stronger Saturday as more of the jet
progresses over the Panhandles thanks to the movement of an upper-
level trough moving across Utah and Western Colorado. Thankfully
these winds will have combat minimum RH values still above 20% and
still green vegetation that will keep any fire weather concerns
low. Otherwise, temperature do look to cool slight with the
movement of the trough as most locations look to be in the mid to
upper 80s Saturday afternoon. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Latest trends form the models continue to the expected the 
incoming trough to take a more northerly track. This placement has
seen precipitation chances diminish for Sunday as current 
placement now has the Panhandles well in the dry slot. Still, the 
Northern Panhandles have been able to hold on to a 10 to 20% 
chance of an isolated storm brushing the area. Regardless, chance 
for precipitation do look to improve as we move into the new week 
with models seeing a secondary trough push into the Pacific 
Northwest while an upper-level high pressure system builds across 
the Southern Untied States. This set up, as we seen it do all 
summer, will invite moisture from the gulf to return to the 
Panhandles, At this time, models are seeing PWAT values rise back 
above one inch, with this moisture looking to hold through the 
middle or next week. For Monday in particular, models have hinted 
of a stalled boundary forcing its way near the Panhandles thanks 
to potential short-wave disturbance. This boundary will help 
severe as lifting mechanism to take advantage of the expected 
moisture and give the Panhandles a 20 to 30% chance for 
precipitation. 

From here models continue to struggle on how the trough will
progress eastward through the middle of next week. Presently, both
ECMWF and GFS do see this trough and its associated cold front
make it to the Panhandles sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday,
but how far south it actually goes is still a big uncertainty. The
NBM has kept favoring the idea of activity making following this
front way into Panhandles, with chances of precipitation now
sitting around 30 to 50%. Beyond this passage, models have only
struggle more with latest ensembles trying to force high pressure
back over the Panhandles. Regardless the progression of the low
will likely see temperature cool through next week with afternoon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours.
Winds will turn southwesterly and strengthen during the day, and 
gusts up to 30 kts cannot be ruled out. Winds will slowly weaken 
through the night but should remain in the 10-15 kt range by the 
end of the night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52