796 
FXUS63 KIND 031016
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and very warm through the weekend.

- Next best chance for rain is Monday Night through Tuesday Night. 

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures return on Wednesday and 
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in 
place centered over NJ and NYC. This high was extending its 
influence across the eastern half of the country, resulting in 
warmer but light southerly flow across Indiana. GOES16 shows some 
high CI over the SE Half of Indiana while the rest of Indiana was 
under mostly clear skies. Aloft, water vapor showed strong ridging 
in place over the high plains that was steering any forcing dynamics 
across the Dakotas, upper midwest and Ontario. Otherwise strong 
subsidence was found over the plains building eastward. Dew points 
across Central Indiana are higher than yesterday...in the middle and 
upper 50s.

Models today and tonight suggest that the upper ridging to the west 
will build eastward...settling over Indiana and the Ohio Valley. 
This will result in continued subsidence across the area. The 
surface high to the east is expected to reorganize over the middle 
Atlantic states and continue to maintain control of the weather 
across the eastern half of the country. Light southerly winds will 
be expected. Forecast soundings show some CU is possible this 
afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Thus some 
afternoon CU will be expected. Overall, skies will remain mostly 
sunny. As heating is lost this evening, expect mostly clear skies.

With little change in the overall air mass highs will be at or 
slightly above persistence in the middle to upper 80s. Look for lows 
tonight in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A dry and warm pattern will continue on Saturday through 
Monday. Rain chances will return on Monday Night through Tuesday 
Night. Dry weather will return on Wednesday and Thursday.

Saturday through Monday...

Models continue to suggest strong ridging aloft will be in place 
over Indiana on Saturday...moving to the east coast by Sunday. The 
flow aloft will then become southwesterly on Monday on the windward 
side of the ridge to the east. Little in the way of forcing dynamics 
is allowed to pass during this time. Forecast soundings show a dry 
column through the weekend with the potential for daily CU 
development. Thus mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights will be 
expected with warm temperatures near persistence. Again these values 
will be about 15-20 degrees above normals.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...

Our next best chance for rain will occur here. Models suggest 
southwest flow aloft being influenced by a upper trough moving 
through Ontario and the Great Lakes, with a trough axis poised to 
push across Indiana on Tuesday. Lower levels suggest surface cold 
front associated with this feature approaching Central Indiana on 
Monday night before moving across our area on Tuesday. Forecast 
soundings have trended toward saturation on Monday night and show 
some layers of saturation on Tuesday. Pwats suggest plentiful 
moisture available with values near 1.70 on Monday Night. Mid levels 
moisture fields also show the arrival of gulf moisture from the 
south arriving and combining with moisture from the north associated 
with the upper trough and cold front. Thus confidence for rain 
continues to grow and highest pops will be used during this time. 
Expect a cool down with temps as cold air advection, clouds and rain 
all come into play during this time.

Wednesday and Thursday...

Dry but cooler weather is expected to return during this time with 
temperatures returning to near normal values. Models suggest in the 
wake of the cold front, a much cooler Canadian high pressure system 
will settle across Indiana. This appears to be supported by another 
strong ridge moving through the plains and allowing lee side 
subsidence and strong surface high pressure to the move across the 
Great Lakes and Indiana. Here again we will look for mostly sunny 
days and mostly clear nights.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 616 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Impacts:

- None; VFR Expected.

Discussion:

No changes to the ongoing forecast.

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday morning as strong 
surface high pressure over the east coast will continue to control 
Indiana/s weather. Strong ridging aloft will also provide further 
subsidence. Forecast soundings show CU potential this afternoon as 
dew point temps are a bit higher than the past few days. Thus after 
a mostly clear overnight, SCT CU will be expected this afternoon, 
and dissipation is expected as daytime heating is lost.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Puma