767 
FXUS65 KFGZ 030911
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
211 AM MST Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mild and windy weather is expected today ahead of an 
incoming weather system. Scattered thunderstorms will develop 
across eastern Arizona this afternoon and evening. Dry and cooler 
weather arrives for the weekend into early next week. A chance for
showers and thunderstorms will return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona will see increasing southwesterly flow today
in response to an upper level low moving inland near San Francisco 
this morning. The low will move into southern Nevada tonight with 
the base of the trough sweeping through Arizona on Saturday. The 
main impacts from this system will be increased southwest winds 
today, scattered thunderstorms across eastern Arizona this 
afternoon and evening, all followed by cooler temperatures this 
weekend. The cooler air aloft will combine with a slight increase 
in moisture to result in scattered thunderstorm activity mainly 
across Apache county today. Although instability will be marginal,
enhanced wind shear from the approaching trough will bring the 
potential for a few strong thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms that extends into the four corners 
region. Peak wind gusts today will range from 40 to near 50 mph,
with the strongest winds focused along and north of I-40, where a
Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM MST.

Winds will decrease this evening, but remain breezy into Saturday.
Stronger wind gusts up to 45 mph are still expected on Saturday 
across eastern Arizona. Drier air arrives tonight which will bring
an end to any rain/storm chances. Drier and cool weather is in 
store this weekend in the wake of the trough passage. Daytime 
temperatures will decrease to about 5 degrees below normal with 
the coldest overnight lows yet this season forecast for Sunday 
morning. High mountain locations are likely to drop below 
freezing.

Mostly dry weather with gradually increasing temperatures is 
forecast next week as the influence of high pressure returns.
Model guidance suggests a gradual increase in moisture across
eastern Arizona midweek, moving westward later in the week, which
will bring returning chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR
conditions and mostly clear skies are forecast. Look for light 
and variable winds overnight. Stronger winds will develop by the 
late morning Friday becoming southwest at 15-25 kts gusting to 40 
kts. Friday night winds will diminish to 10-20 kts but will remain
locally gusty at 25-35 kts downwind of terrain features.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z...VFR conditions
and mainly clear skies are expected. During the day Saturday look
for southwest winds at 15-25 kts gusting to 35 kts east of a 
KFLG-Four Corners line. Elsewhere, winds 5-15 kts gusting to 20 
kts. Lighter winds are set for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Expect southwest winds to 
increase to 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph today in advance of an 
approaching weather system. Scattered thunderstorms are also
expected across eastern Arizona, which could produce gusty outflow
winds. Elevated southwest winds will persist across eastern
Arizona on Saturday, decreasing and shifting to the west 
elsewhere. Expect drier and cooler weather Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday..Mostly dry weather is expected with 
cooler than normal temperatures through Monday. Expect south to 
southwest winds each day around 10-20 mph. A slight chance for 
thunderstorms returns to eastern Arizona by Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST 
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-006-007-009-012-013-015-039-
040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff