883 
FXUS65 KVEF 030904
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
204 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the 
  region today, with increased precipitation chances for the Great 
  Basin and eastern Sierra.

* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend 
  before rising back to near normal next week.

* Dry weather is expected from Saturday at least through Wednesday. 
  Beginning Thursday, there is a chance for tropical moisture to be 
  pulled into the Desert Southwest, but there is a lot of 
  uncertainty.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. Early morning satellite loop 
showed two bands of clouds associated with the incoming trough - one 
located in northwest Inyo and western Esmeralda counties and the 
other located in Clark and Lincoln counties. Area radars showed weak 
returns over the Sierra Nevada with occasional lightning strikes. 
Surface obs showed warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours ago 
with areas of gusty southwest winds. The winds will be the main 
forecast concern today. The Wind Advisories for the Spring Mountains 
and most of the San Bernardino County deserts still look good. Just 
north of the northwest tip of the Spring Mountains, Desert Rock has 
started to gust early this morning. There has been a history of 
isolated downslope winds in this area during the early part of wind 
events before the mean wind vector veers from southerly to 
southwesterly. Since this will affect Highway 95 but not Pahrump 
(the population center in the same forecast zone), will handle it in 
conjunction with the highway patrol rather than expanding the 
Advisory. Farther north, chances for showers and thunderstorms along 
with high mountain snow will swing east through Inyo, Esmeralda, 
Nye, and Lincoln counties today and tonight. Amounts should be light 
and more beneficial than hazardous, barring any training 
thunderstorms. The main low will exit to the northeast Saturday 
morning, leaving behind a weak baggy trough for the first half of 
next week. This will result in a slow, steady warming trend from 
about five degrees below normal Saturday to near normal Wednesday. 
From Thursday onward, forecast confidence is very low. By that time, 
the next low in the westerlies is expected to be nearing the West 
Coast, with the usual uncertainty in the exact position/track/depth. 
At the same time, presumed Hurricane Priscilla is forecast to be 
somewhere west of the southern tip of the Baja. Will the low in the 
westerlies be far enough south and east, and will Priscilla be far 
enough north, for tropical moisture to be pulled north into the 
Desert Southwest? Well...maybe. We can't be sure that it will, but 
we also can't be sure that it won't. Timing is also a big question. 
Some model solutions show chances for showers and storms southeast 
of I-15 as early as Thursday, others show a stormy weekend, and 
others keep the moisture away from our area altogether. Will 
continue to monitor trends.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy 
south-southwest winds will continue through the overnight period. 
Early Friday morning, southwesterly wind gusts will pick up to 
around 25 kts... further increasing mid-afternoon to around 30 kts. 
Southwest gusts decrease in speed and frequency after sunset. 
Between 08 and 10Z, a front will push through southern Nevada, 
resulting in a sudden wind shift from the northwest, with gusts 
between 15 and 20 kts. FEW-SCT aoa 25 kft through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and 
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty south-
southwest wind gusts will peak Friday afternoon at Las Vegas Valley 
and Colorado River Valley TAF sites, with speeds generally between 
20 and 28 kts and peaking between 30 and 35 kts at times. Gust speed 
and frequency will decrease after sunset. A front will push through 
the region overnight, with a sudden wind shift in southern Nevada 
from the northwest between 08 and 10Z and along the Colorado River 
Valley from the west-northwest between 03 and 05Z... becoming 
northerly Saturday morning. KBIH will experience breezy north winds 
overnight, with northwesterly wind gusts peaking between 25 and 30 
kts Friday afternoon. Shower activity over the Sierra Crest and 
White Mountains will be visible from the terminal, with best chances 
of vicinity showers between 10 and 17Z. Gusty west winds at KDAG 
peaking between 30 and 35 kts. FEW-SCT aoa 25 kft through the TAF 
period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Soulat

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