027 
FXUS63 KMQT 030753
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
353 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and storms linger throughout the daytime hours 
today before we dry out again for the weekend.

- Unseasonable warmth continues to this weekend with daytime highs 
15-20 degrees above normal. Max high temperature records could be 
broken across several spots this weekend. 

- Warm, breezy, and dry weather may lead to limited fire weather 
conditions this weekend. 

- Southerly gales are possible across Lake Superior late Sunday into 
Sunday night. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Spotty showers and storms continue to move across the UP and Lake 
Superior early this morning with a weak frontal boundary extending 
into the area from a shortwave moving through Ontario. In spite of 
our rather moist airmass, featuring PWATs up to 1.2 inches, weak 
forcing is keeping morning convection spotty and light. Where 
showers can develop early this morning, generally a trace to 0.10in 
of rainfall would be expected. However, if we can get any brief 
downpours in storms, then higher totals up to 0.10-0.20in would not 
be out of the question this morning. As we head into the afternoon 
hours, some additional diurnal convection will be possible given a 
warm, moist, unstable airmass and a potential for some lake breeze 
convergence to act as a focus for development across the central and 
eastern UP. MUCAPE peaks at several hundred to 1000j/kg per the 
HREF, but limited shear precludes any real concerns for strong to 
severe convection. Where we can get some pop-up showers/storms 
today, additional .10-0.25in totals would not be out of the 
question. 

Otherwise, expect temperatures to stay quite warm, peaking well into 
the 70s to lower 80s under partly cloudy skies while winds come in 
lighter compared to yesterday.

Expect temperatures to soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal by 
Saturday, with highs climbing into the lower to potentially even mid-
80s across much of the area, particularly near the downslopes along 
Lake Superior; don't be surprised if several places in Upper 
Michigan tie or break their max high temperature record on Saturday. 
In addition to the heat, breezy southerly winds will increase 
throughout the day as a low pressure system develops in the Plains 
and starts to stretch out into northwestern Ontario. With winds 
potentially gusting over 30 mph at times in spots, we could see some 
fire weather concerns, even though RHs are still predicted to only 
drop down into the lower 40-percents with some lower values in the 
mid 30-percents possible. While we may see a near-repeat on Sunday, 
with clouds potentially moving in late in the day, we may not see 
high temperatures get as warm; nevertheless, we could still see some 
record-tying or breaking high heat and even windier conditions 
across the area, bringing fire weather concerns back across the U.P. 

A stronger cold front moves through the U.P. Sunday night, 
potentially bringing showers and storms through the area. However, 
recent medium range guidance has kept precipitation out of our area 
before developing further south and east of Upper Michigan Monday 
morning; if this is the case, then we could see fire weather 
concerns return late next week when temperatures could begin to warm 
above normal. With cold air advection cycling into the area through 
the first half of next week, we could see some breezy conditions and 
more normal temperatures through next Wednesday, with some lake 
effect rain showers potentially showing up around the late Tuesday 
to Wednesday time period. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the duration of the 6Z TAF 
period. A weak cold front approaching from the northwest brings some 
isolated showers and storms to the UP early. Continued PROB30 groups 
with slightly adjusted timeframes to account for the isolated nature 
expected and lingering uncertainty regarding timing. Dry weather 
then returns by mid morning at CMX/IWD while low chances for showers 
and storms continue at SAW. Otherwise light southwest winds around 5 
kts become light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Winds out of the southeast continue to gust to near 20kts across the 
eastern half of the lake through the early morning hours, falling 
back after sunrise. Winds shift over to the NE behind a weak cold 
front later today. As a subtle shortwave moves through the western 
lake Saturday, expect winds to begin picking up from the south once 
again. Then, as a more organized low lifts from the Central Plains 
towards northwestern Ontario late Saturday through Sunday, expect 
the winds to continue increasing to 25 to 30 knots across the lake. 
As the cold front of the low approaches late in the day Sunday, we 
could see southerly gales to as high as 40 knots across the open 
waters of Lake Superior (ensemble guidance shows chances for gales 
of 35 knots or greater at 40 to 70%); the gales look to become 
westerly behind the front Sunday evening before dwindling to 20 
knots or less again by Monday as high pressure ridging quickly moves 
back over the area. Meanwhile, some showers and storms will be 
possible Sunday night into early Monday with the passing front, 
though strong to severe convection is not expected. Some gusty winds 
across Lake Superior could return as early as Tuesday as another 
shortwave rolls through and brings cold air advection back across 
Lake Superior sometime during mid next week. 

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...LC