212 
FXUS61 KBUF 030657
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather through the upcoming 
weekend. There will be a day-to-day warming trend with well above 
normal temperatures this weekend into the start of next week. The 
next chance of rain will not arrive until Tuesday and Wednesday as a 
cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Large area of expansive surface high pressure centered along the 
southern New England coast will drift slowly southward to the Mid-
Atlantic coast by early Saturday morning, while maintaining dry 
conditions across the lower Great Lakes region and Northeast through 
the period.

A few fair-weather diurnal cumulus clouds may blossom across the 
interior Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region this 
afternoon, otherwise mostly sunny to sunny skies with a 
southwesterly breeze for today. Airmass will continue to modify 
under south to southwesterly low level flow. This combined with good 
diurnal mixing will help boost daytime highs upwards of 10 to 15 
degrees above normal.

A cold front sagging south across central Ontario/southern Quebec 
may bring a some extra clouds toward north-central NY and the Saint 
Lawrence Valley tonight, while some patchy fog will be possible 
across the Southern Tier valleys. Overnight lows will average 5 to 
10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
During this period surface high pressure initially situated along 
the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines will slowly drift 
offshore...while the axis of amplifying upper-level ridging slides 
across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast in response to digging 
troughing across Central Canada and the northern Plains states. 

The resulting large-scale subsidence and warm/dry airmass will 
result in fair dry weather and summerlike warmth throughout this 
period. Expect daytime highs to climb to roughly 15 degrees above 
normal areawide (upper 70s higher terrain and lower-mid 80s across 
the lower elevations) by Sunday/Monday...while nightly lows will 
range some 10 degrees above normal (near 50 far interior to mid-
upper 50s across the lake plains) by Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday night through Wednesday the aforementioned upper level trough 
will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes...with an attendant 
broad surface low eventually pushing its trailing cold front 
southeastward across our region sometime in the later Tuesday-
Tuesday night-early Wednesday time frame. Favorable moisture return 
along/ahead of the front coupled with decent low level convergence 
and DCVA/height falls aloft should lead to a period of fairly 
numerous showers attendant to the cold frontal passage...with weak 
instability also possibly supporting a couple thunderstorms across 
far WNY Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. Given the extremely 
dry pattern we've been in for the past few months...this rainfall 
would be much-welcomed...even if it doesn't currently appear to be a 
true drought-buster. 

Following the passage of the cold front...Canadian high pressure and 
a much cooler and drier airmass then looks to overspread our area 
for next Wednesday and Thursday...resulting in temperatures falling 
back to a bit below average for the last two days of this period. In 
fact...it's not out of the question that daytime highs may not make 
it out of the 50s on at least one of Wednesday/Thursday depending 
upon the eventual magnitude and timing of the coolest air aloft...as 
well as the extent of any post-frontal upslope and lake-driven cloud 
cover.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large area of expansive surface high pressure centered along the 
southern New England coast will drift slowly southward to the Mid-
Atlantic coast by late tonight while maintaining widespread VFR 
flight conditions.

Passing cirrus will move east of the area today as weak upper level 
trough shifts east into New England this afternoon. Some fair-
weather diurnal cumulus clouds (FEW/SCT ~040) may blossom across the 
interior Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region this 
afternoon.

Patchy river valley fog and localized IFR is expected across the 
Southern Tier late tonight through mid morning Saturday, but is 
expected to again stay mainly east of KJHW.

Outlook... 

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and localized IFR 
possible each late night through the morning hours.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
12-15 knot southerly winds will continue over eastern Lake Erie and 
the eastern end of Lake Ontario. This will bring some moderate chop 
to the northeastern end of Lake Ontario, however with a mainly 
southerly offshore wind component, higher waves will remain further 
offshore of our eastern Lake Ontario nearshore zone.  

Otherwise, pressure gradient relaxes this afternoon through this 
weekend resulting in winds generally less than 10 knots, resulting 
in little to no wave action. With a light synoptic flow in place, 
weak offshore flow will flip to onshore each afternoon as weak lake 
breeze circulations develop.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM