466 
FXUS62 KJAX 030551
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
151 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend. High Rip
  Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Wind Gusts of 
  30 to 40 mph Along the Atlantic Coast through Saturday.

- Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend.
  Coastal Flood Advisory for St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL &
  Southeast GA Coasts & Portions of Intracoastal Waterway. 

- Coastal Flood Watch Beginning Friday Afternoon and Evening for 
  Coastal Northeast FL & St. Johns River Duval Co. Southward 
  (Moderate Tidal Flooding Potential)

- Rain Chance Increases through the Weekend. Daily Rounds of 
  Heavy Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood 
  Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Periods of showers and MVFR ceilings are expected at the regional
terminals throughout the period. Brief periods of IFR conditions 
will be possible during heavier showers, and longer periods of VFR
conditions are expected in between waves of showers. Confidence in
timing of heavier showers and MVFR/IFR conditions remains low, as
we used vicinity coverage overnight through Friday morning and 
PROB30 groups on Friday afternoon, with activity more likely to
impact the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals shortly after 16Z, with
activity then quickly progressing inland. East-northeasterly
surface winds sustained around 15 knots and gusty at SGJ overnight
will increase to 15-20 knots by 16Z, with frequent gusts around 30
knots expected. Northeasterly surface winds sustained at 5-10
knots elsewhere will increase to 10-15 knots and gusty by 15Z and
then around 15 knots by 18Z, with frequent gusts of 20-30 knots
likely. Surface winds at the inland terminals will diminish to
around 10 knots towards 00Z Saturday, while sustained speeds at 
the coastal terminals remain sustained at 10-15 knots and gusty.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Local Nor'easter conditions will continue to ramp up through
tonight as the coastal trough over the Atlantic waters sharpens up
and lifts northward. This will re-focus the shower and embedded
storm activity that is currently just across Flagler county and
expand it across the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline and I-95
corridor through tonight with windy conditions at the beachfront
locations along with the risk of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall
amounts not excessive enough for a Flood Watch at this time, but
may need to be posted sometime on Friday or the weekend as better
guidance on where the convergent rain bands will set up. Sustained
NE winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will continue for
the Atlantic Coastal counties through tonight, just below Wind
Advisory criteria, while lesser breezy type NE winds of 15-20G25
mph winds over inland areas this afternoon will fade to 10-15G20
mph over inland areas through tonight. Overnight lows will remain
fairly close to normal values in the middle 60s inland SE GA,
upper 60s inland NE FL and lower/middle 70s for Atlantic Coastal
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Increasing chances for showers and storms going into the weekend
as moist onshore flow from out of the Atlantic builds south of
high pressure to the north and burgeoning low pressure to the
south, resulting in conditions somewhat similar to a nor'easter
pattern with gusty northeasterly-easterly winds and a potential
for excessive rainfall capable of producing local flooding
conditions as PWAT values rise to be in excess of 2.2 inches. Wind
speeds during this period are anticipated to rise to be about
15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. High temperatures for the end of
the week and into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s
with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Showers and storms will become more widespread through the weekend
and into the beginning of next week with area-wide convection
building as the developing low pressure system moves across the
Florida peninsula and starts moving towards the northwest,
resulting in a more southerly prevailing flow over the forecast
area leading to a weaker onshore surface winds as the week
progresses with a corresponding reduction in convective
developments as drier air starts to advect into the region by
Wednesday. Temperatures will experience a slight warming trend
through the coming week with daytime high temperatures rising to
be near and slightly above the seasonal average by midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds
and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through
the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional
wind gusts to Gale Force. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our
local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for
showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly
by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the
Carolinas.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions, along with moderate to severe beach erosion will
continue at Atlantic beachfront locations through late this week
and through the upcoming weekend. Surf/breakers into the 7-10 ft
range will continue late this week through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to severe beach erosion is expected at Atlantic
beachfront locations during times of high tide through the
upcoming weekend as high surf advisories remain in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding will continue along the
St. Johns River from downtown JAX southward and along the NE FL
Atlantic inter-coastal areas of St. Johns/Flagler counties early
this afternoon, then will expand to the rest of the St. Johns
River and Atlantic Coastal areas from JAX northward through
Brunswick with the next high tide cycle this afternoon and evening
and have expanded the current Coastal Flood Advisory as peak water
levels remain generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The
continued NE surge of winds through the upcoming weekend will
continue to trap more water in the St. Johns River Basin and
combine with higher astronomical tides due to the full Moon by the
Friday afternoon and evening high tide cycle and expect water
levels to peak in the 2 to 2.5 ft range above MHHW in the St Johns
River Basin, and along the ICWW of the NE FL coast and have pushed
the Coastal Flood Watch to start in these locations for more
widespread Moderate coastal/tidal flooding, which will continue
through the entire weekend, while mainly Minor Coastal Flooding
will continue from Nassau County northward along the SE GA
coastline during times of high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  83  69 /  10  10  10  20 
SSI  78  72  81  73 /  40  70  40  50 
JAX  81  70  83  72 /  40  60  60  60 
SGJ  81  72  83  73 /  50  60  70  70 
GNV  84  69  85  71 /  30  30  40  40 
OCF  83  70  83  72 /  30  30  40  40 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

     Coastal Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday evening 
     for FLZ125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$