National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLZK
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLZK
Product Timestamp: 2025-10-03 05:39 UTC
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944 FXUS64 KLZK 030539 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 -Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least early next week, with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above normal. -More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid- week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains. -Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late week next week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 H500 ridging was noted acrs much of the Cntrl US w/ amplified troughing moving acrs the Wrn US. Locally, Ern US sfc pressure continues to drive the fcst, w/ dry and warmer than normal temps prevailing thru at least the end of the weekend. Thru the end of the weekend and into early next week, guidance remains indicative of the aforementioned H500 ridge deamplifying and shifting Swrd over the Srn Cntrl US, w/ generally zonal flow and passing embedded shortwave trofs prevailing acrs the CONUS. Incrsg sfc moisture is expected acrs the region by Mon, and wl aid in incrsg rain chances thru the early half of next week ahead of an aprchg cdfrnt. Latest guidance continues to suggest this frnt wl move acrs the Ozark Plateau during the Tues-Wed timeframe, driving more widespread, but low chance PoPs for much of the FA. In the wake of the frnt, which looks to shift towards a "back-door" frnt as sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes, NErly sfc winds wl prevail, ushering in much cooler and drier air over the Natural State thru the end of the PD, w/ settled wx condns resuming. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Expect VFR flight category for the entire forecast period from early Friday morning through early Saturday morning. Expect surface winds to be light and variable early Friday morning before becoming re- established out of the south to southeast across most terminals besides KLLQ which will experience surface winds become established out of the east-northeast later Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 87 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 84 58 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 87 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 86 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 88 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 87 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 87 59 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 87 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 87 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 88 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 88 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 87 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...74