337 
FXUS64 KMOB 030536
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Now through Thursday...

An upper level trough organizes over the north-central and 
northeastern Gulf coast into the weekend. A weak surface ridge over 
the Appalachians strengthens and builds south over the Southeast, 
creating a tight pressure gradient along the northern Gulf coast the 
rest of the week through the weekend. Most of the forecast area will 
be rain free as drier northerly air moves south over the Southeast 
on the west side of the surface ridge, the exception being along and 
south of the coast. A combination of better moisture levels, strong 
low level dynamics in the strong easterly flow, along with several 
easterly waves passing south of the Gulf coast, and added upper 
weakness from the upper trough, comes together allowing for daily 
showers and thunderstorms to form over these areas. A building upper 
ridge over the East coast will shift the upper trough westward 
Sunday into the coming week. The surface ridge over the Appalachians 
rotates clockwise in response, allowing Gulf moisture to move 
further inland (guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values 
rising over 2" over most of the forecast area by Monday). 
Precipitation returns forecast area-wide Sunday into early in the 
week with the increasing moisture levels. Showers and thunderstorms 
decrease into mid week as upper subsidence from upper high pressure 
moves over the northern Gulf coast increases.

High temperatures a bit above seasonal norms are expected Friday 
through Sunday (low to mid 80s). High temperatures rebound early in 
the coming week as upper subsidence increases from the building East 
Coast upper ridge. Low temperatures remain above seasonal norms, 
with the coolest night being tonight, ranging from the upper 50s 
well north of Highway 84 to upper 60s along the coast. The 
increasing moisture levels, then increasing upper subsidence, will 
bring low temperatures ranging from the the mid 60s to near 70 north 
of I-10 to low 70s south to the coast mid week.

Increasing easterly flow along the northern Gulf coast will bring a 
High Risk of Rip Currents through the weekend. With surf heights 
averaging 5 feet Friday into Sunday, a High Surf Advisory has been 
issued through Sunday.
/16  

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday evening. 
Northeasterly winds 5-10 knots overnight increase to around 10 
knots on Friday and become more easterly. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A surface ridge builds south over the Appalachians into the 
weekend, bringing moderate to strong easterly winds to near shore 
and open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for 
Thursday through the weekend, with a possibility of being extended 
longer.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  83  69  83  69  85  68  87 /  10  10  30  50  30  40  20  30 
Pensacola   70  83  71  83  72  84  71  85 /  10  10  30  50  30  40  10  20 
Destin      70  83  71  82  72  83  72  84 /   0  10  20  50  30  40  10  20 
Evergreen   63  85  67  84  68  84  67  87 /   0   0  10  30  20  40  10  30 
Waynesboro  63  84  66  83  68  83  66  86 /   0   0   0  20  10  30  10  20 
Camden      62  83  66  83  67  82  67  84 /   0   0  10  20  20  30  10  20 
Crestview   65  83  69  82  68  83  68  87 /   0  10  10  50  30  40  10  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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