093 
FXUS63 KMPX 030534
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with 
  near record highs and lows through Sunday.

- Windy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with gusts of 35 
  to 50 mph possible, strongest Sunday morning.

- Much cooler next week with areas of frost possible Tuesday  
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Broad ridging across most of the CONUS has brought very warm air 
northward across the region and even into Canada today. 
Temperatures have surged into the 80s and should continue to 
warm another couple degrees before maxing out. A weak shortwave 
will pass across northern MN this evening which could spark a 
few thunderstorms, but any activity should remain north of our 
area. Winds tonight will be light and given the relatively dry 
air in place, temperatures will bottom out in the upper 50s to 
mid 60s, which will negate a chance of record warm lows for 
Friday. Consult the climate section below for details on records
this weekend.

A deep trough on the west coast will continue east slowly across 
the Rockies through Saturday. Thermal ridging building northward
to the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley will allow 
temperatures to increase Friday and Saturday. 925 mb temps 
greater than +24C will bring highs into at least the upper 80s 
area wide. These readings will be even warmer west of I-35 where
925 mb temps of +26 to +28C are possible. Highs in the lower 
90s are a very good bet, and some mid 90s are even possible in 
west central MN. As the trough approaches Friday night, a potent
LLJ will stretch from the southern Plains to the Upper 
Mississippi Valley. Surface winds will remain elevated Friday 
night and could be quite strong come Saturday and Sunday. The 
potential strength has been fluctuating with the guidance, but 
forecast soundings and NBM probabilities suggest at least 30-35 
kt gusts are likely through the weekend. Some gusts could exceed
this, especially early Sunday as a 50+ kt jet streak at 850 mb 
passes through. We will probably need Wind Advisories at some 
point this weekend. The jet streak will shift north in the 
afternoon as a cold front reaches western MN, allowing winds to 
gradually ease in the late afternoon and early evening. Given 
the extensive mixing Friday and Saturday nights, temperatures 
will remain very warm in the lower 70s which would be enough to 
set records at all climate sites. However, with the front 
passing through later Sunday, lows for that date will occur at 
midnight Sunday evening and should be below record levels. If 
the front had not passed through, record lows for Sunday could 
have been broken by ~10 degrees!

Cannot rule out a random shower or two with the cold front, but 
most will stay dry. As the front settles into and stalls in Iowa
and southern WI late Sunday night and Monday, additional 
showers could develop along it. Most of the activity will remain
south of the area, but low PoPs are still warranted across 
southern MN and western WI. 

Surface high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest and  
Great Lakes Tuesday night. Clear skies, calm winds, and dew 
points in the 20s will set up ideal conditions to bring the 
first potential widespread frost or light freeze outside of the 
metro.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Prevailing VFR through the period. An isolated area of showers 
which impacted RNH late yesterday has moved off to the NE and 
looks to have missed EAU. Mid-level cu is expected mid to late 
morning across most sites. Southerly winds are forecast to 
increase with gusts ranging between 18-21kts especially for our 
western sites. Winds speeds are expected to remain slightly 
elevated through the remainder of the period. An approaching 
trough could create a few hours of near 40kt LLWS possible as 
the trough passes. Although was reluctant to include any LLWS 
due to lacked confidence on exact timing. 

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 20-25G30-35 kts. 
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15-20G30-40kts. 
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Record lows/highs for this weekend:

		FRI			SAT			SUN

MSP    72/90	   68/89       63/88
STC    64/88       64/88       58/89
EAU    72/89       67/86       64/84

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dunleavy
CLIMATE...Borghoff