138 
FXUS63 KICT 030528
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with
  highs in the mid and upper 80s likely. 

- Gusty south winds likely Saturday, especially across central
  Kansas, where gusts over 40 mph will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows a weak upper impulse 
sliding across the Mid Mississippi Valley with upper ridging 
through the Southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a sharp upper 
trough is just off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. 

Morning showers finally dissipated over the Flint Hills a few
hours ago and were the result of some mid level warm advection
along a sharp 700mb baroclinic zone. 

For tonight into Fri, West Coast trough will consolidate as it
sinks southeast and by Fri afternoon will be tracking across
Central CA, with upper ridging remaining from Northern Mex
through the Southern Plains. This setup will keep precip out of 
the forecast and will also allow above normal temps in the upper
80s to continue for Fri. 

Western CONUS impulse will continue tracking east and by late 
Sat afternoon will be moving across the Central Rockies and 
into the Central Plains by Sat night. As this shortwave lift 
into the Upper Mississippi Valley, a weak cold front will try 
and push through the area Sun night into Mon and will bring 
increased rain chances. Ahead of the front we are still looking 
for highs to be around 10 degrees above normal for Sat and Sun 
as they top out in the mid and upper 80s. Models remain 
consistent forecasting strong south winds on Saturday with 
sustained speeds around 30 mph likely across central KS with 
gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Wind speeds will drop off across
southern and southeast KS where mixing will not be as deep. 

There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in some upper
energy getting cut-off over the Great Basin on Mon as the mean
upper trough swings across southern Saskatchewan and into
Southwest Ontario by Tue morning. This will allow a more
substantial cold front to push south across the area for Tue 
into Wed, bringing cooler temps and increased rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
will increase by 15-16Z to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. The
strongest gusts are expected at RSL and GBD. LLWS conditions are
possible towards the end of the period but wind gusts up to 25
kt are likely to continue into Friday night, mitigating the LLWS
concern. 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF