183 
FXUS63 KTOP 030526
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Warm and dry weather continue through the weekend.

-Precipitation chances increase early next week with cooler 
 weather expected late in this forecast period.

-Questions remain on the timing of rain, however, which will be
 based on the position of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS this afternoon features a 
large mid-level ridge of high pressure extending from the Desert 
Southwest to the mid-Atlantic coastline, with an embedded weak and 
decaying shortwave trough over Missouri. An amplified mid-level 
trough axis sits off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the 
surface, high pressure is centered along the northeastern 
coastline and southerly flow exists across the central US. 

Temperatures remain summer-like for the next few days as the upper 
ridge holds firm over the middle of the country into Saturday before 
southwest flow develops ahead of the approaching western trough 
axis. Lows will be in the 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s 
through the weekend with dry weather likely persisting for much of 
the area. South winds will become quite breezy on Saturday as the 
pressure gradient increases in response to deepening low pressure 
ahead of that western wave. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph could be common, 
especially toward central portions of the state.

A cold front should approach the forecast area from the northwest 
late this weekend and early next week, which will finally bring some 
changes to the forecast in regards to temps and precip chances. The 
main question is where the front will set up and when it will 
eventually push south of the CWA. Current thinking is that the 
front will make it I-70 Sunday night and near I-35 by midday 
Monday. The front may then stall for a time before progressing 
at the quicker pace to the south on Tuesday as high pressure 
builds in from the north. Temps and precip will be dependent on 
the frontal position with cooler conditions and rain chances 
higher north of the boundary. We will at least see rain chances 
for the entire area between Monday and Tuesday, and cooler 
weather area-wide by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR TAFs will continue through the period with winds increasing
out of the south late tomorrow morning to around 10 mph.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Griesemer