379 
FXUS64 KLCH 030521
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small Craft Advisory for east winds over 20 knots. Combined seas
  will be 7 feet in the outer coastal waters.

- Moisture increases further by Sunday as the upper level
  disturbance moves overhead, allowing rain chances to ramp up
  a bit Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

This weekend, there will be little change to the forecast with a 
broad area of low pressure along the Gulf. Winds will be from the 
east, around 10 mph, as high pressure builds on the East Coast and
keeps our winds elevated. This easterly wind will slowly replace 
our dry air with a warmer and moister airmass. However, for the 
weekend, most of the area will remain dry with only a 20% chance 
of precipitation.

Temperatures will remain elevated for the first week of October, 
with highs approaching 90 degrees each day. Overnight lows won’t 
bring much relief either, with lows staying in the upper 60s near 
the coast and dropping to the mid-60s farther inland. While the 
atmosphere will start off dry, dew points here on the ground are 
going to remain in the upper 60s to low 70s for the foreseeable 
future.
 
Along the coast, there is a flooding concern as neap tides along 
with strong east winds will increase the chances for coastal 
flooding. Current guidance keeps water levels just below advisory 
levels, but if winds are more northeasterly, then a coastal 
advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

On Sunday, the low along the coast will move onshore. As the 
system comes onshore, it will pull more Gulf moisture inland. Even
with PWATs going into the 75th percentile, precipitation chances 
will still be on the low side. After the low dissipates, a strong 
ridge will start to build, increasing subsidence aloft. Even with 
the unfavorable conditions for rain, high PWATs along with summer-
like temperatures will lead to popup showers and thunderstorms.

Highs will remain stubbornly high (pardon the pun), with afternoon
temperatures about 5 degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Overnight conditions will be VFR with winds from the east-
northeast. During the afternoon PROB30 is in the forecast for LCH
and BPT. The PROB30 could be expanded to ARA/LFT if models start
to look more aggressive.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Strong east winds will continue, and a small craft advisory is in
place for all of our coastal waters and bays through Saturday 
night. During the weekend, winds will remain above 20 knots with 
gusts up to 25 knots, and waves will build up to 7 feet. 
Unfortunately, the two buoys in our coastal area are both offline 
at the moment, but looking at the buoys to our east, the swell is 
already building with 7-foot seas south of Mobile and 4-foot seas 
south of the Mississippi Delta. Most of the energy from this swell
is expected to miss our area, but it will still be important to 
monitor the forecast for any changes.

Showers and thunderstorms will also be a concern this weekend and
into next week as a low develops near the shore. Near 
thunderstorms, winds and waves will be higher.

In the Southern Gulf, the NHC has given a 10% chance for a
tropical system to develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A bit of a mixed forecast for fire weather, with minimum RH values
dropping into the mid-30s across much of Central Louisiana. In
addition, dry conditions have led to the development of a drought
across Acadiana and dry conditions across most of the CWA. For the
good news, moisture return will lead to maximum RH values near 90
percent. Additionally, winds will remain light and from the east,
bringing more moisture into the low levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  87  67  89  68 /  10   0  10  10 
LFT  87  67  87  69 /  20   0  10  10 
BPT  88  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Sunday 
     for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14