440 
FXUS66 KPDT 030517
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1017 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.AVIATION...

Precipitation chances decrease with time this evening. RDM is the
only terminal still receiving light rain and visibility has been 
above 6 miles with VFR ceilings as well even there. Look for 
chances of rain to fall quickly after 6z. Redevelopment of 
showers on Friday afternoon look more relegated to the higher 
terrain and isolated at best in those areas. Prevailing northwest 
surface winds will be light overnight (3-7 knots) before 
afternoon boundary layer heating and mixing and pressure gradient 
increases surface winds to breezy at DLS (15-24 kts). Russell/71


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 126 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025/ 

DISCUSSION...

Key Messages: 

1. Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms today.

2. Cooler conditions through the weekend. 

3. Cold morning temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

Current radar and visible satellite imagery showing spotty, light 
returns along the Blue Mountains and the east slopes of the
Cascades under mostly cloudy skies. This is in response to an
upper level trough and associated cold front stalling along the
coast. The deepening offshore trough and erosion of the ridge to 
our east will promote the potential for isolated afternoon 
thunderstorms across areas of Central Oregon and the Blue 
Mountains/Foothills. The HREF advertises 100-200 J/kg of surface 
CAPE, low level shear of 50-55kts, and lapse rates of around 6/km.
These parameters do suggest the potential for isolated, discrete 
storm cells to form, but should stay brief and sub-severe (<10% of
severe storms). 

Rain chances will will peak between 2 PM and 7 PM today before
tapering off over the Blue Mountains and foothills until closer to
11 PM. Minimal rain amounts are expected, with highest
accumulations across the Southern Blue Mountains, John Day
Highlands, and the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades with amounts
between 0.10-0.20" likely. There could be areas of slight higher
amounts nearing 0.20-0.30" at higher elevations and near 
developing thunderstorm cells, but chances are relatively low
(30-40%) via the NBM. The Blue Mountain foothills, North-Central
Oregon, John Day Basin, and Wallowa/Union counties are expected to
receive 0.02-0.10", with less than 0.02" expected across the Lower
Columbia Basin and conditions staying dry over the Yakima/Kittitas
Valleys.  

The upper level trough offshore digs south tonight and moves
onshore over Northern California Friday morning before progressing
into the Las Vegas area by Friday evening. A brief transient ridge
will follow in the dropping system's wake on Friday, bringing with
it drier conditions through the majority of the day. An second
upper level trough will drop through British Columbia and into
northeastern Washington Saturday, bringing a return to light rain
chances (20-30%) across the Cascades and Blue Mountains during the
morning and afternoon. Minimal rain amounts are expected of 0.03"
or less across mountainous terrain of the Blue and Cascade 
Mountains, with the NBM suggesting a 40-50% of 0.02" or more rain
over the aforementioned areas Saturday.

Northwest flow will initiate Friday and extend into early next 
week, keeping temperatures below normal and dropping low 
temperatures into the upper 20s across lower elevations of Central
Oregon as upper level flow becomes more northerly. Ensembles are 
currently looking more favorable for low temperatures to bump up 
slightly both Sunday and Monday mornings with 52% of members on 
Sunday and 80% of members on Monday related to more of a marine 
influence slowing overnight cooling. At this time, there is a 
30-50% chance of freezing temperatures for Redmond, Bend, and La 
Grande Sunday morning, a 50-80% chance on Monday morning, and a 
30-60% chance on Tuesday morning. 

Ensembles struggle with the overall pattern Tuesday onward as 
members suggest a ridge offshore and a dropping system midweek. At
this time, the leading scenario (50-60%) is another dropping
system offshore Thursday, bringing a return to widespread light
rain chances to the area. 75 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  67  46  66 /  40  10   0  20 
ALW  50  68  49  66 /  50  20   0  20 
PSC  45  72  46  71 /  20   0   0  10 
YKM  42  72  46  70 /  10   0  10  10 
HRI  46  71  48  69 /  20  10   0  10 
ELN  39  68  44  66 /  10   0  20  10 
RDM  38  63  35  61 /  50  10  10  20 
LGD  46  63  39  61 /  60  30   0  30 
GCD  45  64  38  59 /  40  20   0  20 
DLS  48  71  51  70 /  30  10  20  40 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....75
AVIATION...71