029 
FXUS64 KAMA 030513
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1213 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

- Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the 
Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s   to 
lower 90s.

- Uptick in moisture early to mid next week with a medium chance (30-
60%) of Wednesday high temperatures below 70 degrees across all the 
Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Upper level trough currently approaching the Pacific Northwest may 
bring impacts to the Panhandles mid to late next week.  But for now 
that will continue to amplify the high pressure over the central 
CONUS.  This will continue our very warm early October temperatures 
that will continue to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through at 
least Saturday.  Winds will generally be out of the south to 
southwest today in the 5-10 mph range, with maybe some gusts to 15, 
but tomorrow afternoon we will have a lee surface low develop 
tomorrow afternoon in the SE Colorado area, and that will tighten up 
those pressure gradients, allowing for stronger southwest winds in 
the 15 to 25 mph range gusting around 30 mph Friday afternoon. 

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

As we await the upper trough that's progged to be over the Salt Lake 
City area Saturday morning, the cross barrier flow over the Rockies 
will continue, and south to southwest breezy winds around 15 to 25 
mph look to continue to occur, but will now expand over much of the 
Panhandles.   Strongest winds look to be in the northwest, and may 
even manage to get sustained 25 to 30 in the far northwest corner. 
As we move into Sunday the system is progged to eject to the 
northwest as a more open wave.  And there's a small chance (10-20%) 
that showers and storms may clip the northwest Panhandles.

Monday through Wednesday will be where we start to transition to 
cooler temperatures and higher moisture content.  As that previous 
upper trough ejects to the central Plains a secondary low from 
Canada is expected to push back down south toward the Four Corners, 
which will continue to hold that trough axis over that area.  This 
will continue to keep that south to southwest flow over the 
Panhandles.  There's a decent pocket of cooler Canadian air that 
continue to battle the warmer air to the south and models continue 
to go back and forth on timing of the next decent cold front, as 
well as how cool, and how long the cold front will last.  Given how 
much the deterministic models continue to flip flop on both the 
cooler temperatures, and just how far south the moisture will make 
it next week, we still have several ensemble model members that 
support a good push of cooler below normal temperatures (30-60% 
chance of highs below 70 on Wednesday), and some of those same 
members are favoring more than an inch of precipitation with the 
multiple rounds of showers and storms.  

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours.
High-resolution model guidance suggests there may currently be 
around 40 kt winds at 1500-2000 feet above KGUY which would
introduce low-level wind shear for the terminal. The winds aloft
should weaken some through the night. Otherwise, expect winds to
increase throughout the day and stay elevated through the evening.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52