341 
FXUS63 KFGF 030457
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record breaking warmth through Saturday. 

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms 
  late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Widespread rain
  is forecasted Saturday night through Sunday across portions 
  of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Area of scattered showers and weak thunderstorms have moved into
the northern Devils Lake basin. This will continue to be the
case through 2AM before pushing into Canada.

Still eyeing potential for shallow, patchy fog in lakes country
of Minnesota near central and north-central Minnesota Friday
morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Skies are mostly clear with very warm, summer-like temperatures
continuing through the evening. There is a low chance (20%) in
isolated showers and weak thunderstorms in the northern Devils
Lake basin this evening. There is also a low chance (20%) in fog
developing around sunrise in portions of lakes country near
central and north-central Minnesota. Should fog form, it is
likely to more of the shallow, patchy variety versus widespread
and thick.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...Synopsis...

Meandering surface trough is washing out over Lakes Country this 
afternoon, bringing with it a southerly to westerly wind shift. 
Clear skies have lead to another warm day, with widespread low
to mid 80s across the region early this afternoon. 

Looking upstream, a large trough over the Pacific Coast will be the 
catalyst for more active and unsettled weather as it propagates 
eastward over the weekend. An area of low pressure will form in
the lee of the Rockies Friday night into Saturday, tracking 
from the Nebraska Panhandle northeastward to the Northern Red 
River Valley by midday Sunday. This system will initially bring 
thunderstorms and widespread rainfall, with much cooler 
temperatures and windy conditions on the backside. These cooler 
temperatures will introduce frost/freeze concerns Monday through
Wednesday mornings. Wednesday morning in particular looks to be
the coldest as the core of surface high pressure passes through
the FA. The probabilities Wednesday morning for temperatures of
32 degrees or colder is 70% area wide.

...Weekend Thunderstorms and Rainfall...

A strong low level jet of 50+ knots and associated warm air 
advection will bring increasing potential for thunderstorms starting 
Friday night. The first area of thunderstorm development looks to be 
along the International Border on the nose of the WWA/LLJ Friday 
night. While small hail and lightning are possible, severe weather 
is not anticipated. Attention then shifts to Saturday afternoon and 
evening. The advancing cold front from the west will provide 
sufficient forcing for thunderstorms to develop. Instability of up 
to 2000 J/kg, along with more then adequate 0-6 Km shear of 40+
knots will set the stage for thunderstorm development. The 
window of time for storms to become severe seems to be limited 
to a few hours in the late afternoon/early evening. Therefore, 
the SPC has placed much of the forecast area under a level 1 of 
5 marginal risk. The highest shear and instability seem to co- 
locate themselves in northwestern MN, where a locally bit higher
risk of severe weather appears to exist. 

A large shield of rain will develop on the cold side of the low, 
driven by strong synoptic forcing. This deformation band will slowly 
push northeastward, waning Sunday afternoon. Recent model guidance 
has trended stronger and further west with the track of the surface 
low, resulting in a swath of heavy rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 
inches across the Devils Lake Basin into the far northern Red River 
Valley. Rainfall totals taper off to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

High confidence in VFR throughout the TAF period at all sites
except for KBJI where fog may impact the site.

Between 11Z-14Z, there is a medium (40%) chance in fog 
developing within Minnesota around the KBJI area. Should fog 
develop, it could bring temporary intervals of visibility 
reductions as low as 1/2SM or even briefly 1/4SM, and will be 
shallow and patchy in depth and coverage. Confidence has grown
since last TAF issuance in this potential, and has been added to
KBJI. While visibility reductions are only down to 1SM, fog may
reduce visibility lower.

Winds will remain calm and variable tonight through sunrise, 
before increasing out of the south up to 12kt starting around 
18Z. Gusts to 25kt are forecast at KGFK and KFAR between 21Z-00Z
Friday afternoon.

Good signal in guidance for wind shear already showing up after
00Z Friday evening. There is high confidence in this developing
and impacting TAF sites after 00Z Friday evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...CJ