National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLZK
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLZK
Product Timestamp: 2025-10-03 04:17 UTC
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458 FXUS64 KLZK 030417 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 -Rain chances return to portions of northern Arkansas Thursday afternoon, including a few isolated storms. -Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through early next week, with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above normal. -More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid- week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Latest mesoanalysis indicated H500 ridging acrs the Cntrl US to the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Broad sfc high pressure was noted fm the NErn US, extending SWwrd thru the Appalachians, w/ much of the Srn Cntrl US along the SWrn periphery of this sfc high. Another uneventful and warm day is expected for the Natural State on Thurs, w/ some higher Chc PoPs noted over Nrn AR Thurs aftn in the form of some isolated showers and a few storms. Otherwise, the aforementioned upper and lower lvl features wl cont to drive the local fcst as >90th percentile H500 heights and asctd column high pressure remains stationary over the Ern half of the US thru at least the end of the week. Long term guidance, including deterministic and ensemble progs, continue to suggest the aforementioned H500 ridge wl begin to deamplify by early next week, w/ the primary closed high shifting Swrd towards the Srn US and gulf coast, and mean zonal flow w/ passing embedded shortwave trofs prevailing acrs the CONUS. W/ this pattern change, poleward moisture transport is progged acrs the Srn Cntrl US, which wl aid in incrsg rain chances ahead of an aprchg frnt. Near the end of the PD thru the Tues-Wed timeframe, an upper shortwave is progged to translate Ewrd acrs the Nrn Cntrl US/Canada border region. At the sfc, this shortwave wl help to drive a strong cdfrnt thru the Cntrl Great Plains, but some uncertainties remain on timing and magnitude of upper level and sfc features. For now, blended base guidance and ensemble solns suggest incrsg PoPs ahead of and along the aprchg frnt Mon thru Wed, w/ potentially cooler and more seasonable temps prevailing by mid-week next week if the frnt reaches and clears the FA to the south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Expect VFR flight category for the entire forecast period from early Friday morning through early Saturday morning. Expect surface winds to be light and variable early Friday morning before becoming re- established out of the south to southeast across most terminals besides KLLQ which will experience surface winds become established out of the east-northeast later Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 88 61 88 58 / 20 0 0 0 Camden AR 91 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 85 60 85 58 / 20 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 89 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 88 63 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 91 63 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 92 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 87 61 87 58 / 20 0 0 0 Newport AR 90 62 88 60 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 92 63 88 60 / 20 0 0 0 Searcy AR 89 61 88 58 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 89 63 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74