422 
FXUS63 KEAX 030417
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal conditions continue through the weekend. High 
  temperatures as much as 12-15 degrees above normal.

* Precipitation chances (up to 60%) return late Sunday into Monday.

* Cooler, more seasonal temperatures starting Monday and becoming 
  more widespread by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The warm and dry pattern continues as mid to upper level ridging 
resides over the Great Plains and is slowly tracking to the east 
approaching our area. A stout mid to upper level low is situated 
just off of the western Canada/U.S. coast. At the surface, high 
pressure is dominant over the eastern U.S. For today, as the mid to 
upper level ridge nears the area, mid-level height rises coupled 
with southerly winds (due to the surface high to the east) have 
allowed temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s. These 
temperatures happen to be roughly 12-15 degrees above normal for 
this time of year. Going into tomorrow, mid-level heights increase 
as the trough in the west makes landfall over California aiding in 
the amplification of the ridge as it moves over our area. This, 
coupled with persistent southerly winds will allow high temperatures 
for tomorrow to be a few degrees warmer than today. Highs for 
tomorrow are anticipated to reach the upper 80s to low 90s keeping 
us well above normal for this time of year.

Going into the weekend, the mid to upper level trough over the 
western U.S. helps develop a surface low and a partnering, 
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front over the northern Great 
Plains as it pushes farther east. Above normal temperatures will 
persist through the weekend with southerly flow out ahead of the 
surface front and the mid to upper level ridge still remaining 
prevalent over the area. Highs for this weekend will mostly range 
around the mid to upper 80s.

Low-end chances for precipitation return as early as Sunday morning 
mainly for northeastern KS and northwestern MO with a weak band of 
vorticity at H500 collocated with a ribbon of moisture. A low-level 
jet intensifies also increasing moisture transport into northwest 
MO. However, given the dry layer near the surface, any precipitation 
will have trouble reaching the ground. Late Sunday into Monday, as 
the cold front moves through the area, better precipitation chances 
(30-60%) arrive. Given the the limited instability and weak shear, 
no severe is anticipated at this time. By mid-next week, 
temperatures return to seasonal normals on the backside of the cold 
front, ranging in the upper 60 to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast, with generally
clear skies through the overnight and into tomorrow. During the
afternoon hours, scattered CU develop with bases around 5000 ft.
Winds may also increase to between 10-12kts with very sporadic
gusts to 20kts before decreasing near sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB