284 
FXUS64 KBRO 030334
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1034 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - Life-threatening rip currents are expected at local beaches  
   this weekend

 - Isolated to scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms 
   are expected into next week along the sea breeze each afternoon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Weak mid-level low pressure gradually meanders westward across 
the Gulf this weekend into late next week as the next 500mb ridge 
builds across Texas. Rain chances return Friday afternoon with 
waves of moisture off the Gulf kicking up showers and 
thunderstorms offshore each night and inland with the sea breeze 
each afternoon. The highest POPs occur Saturday and Wednesday 
through Thursday. 

With little wind or movement, any showers or thunderstorms that 
develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, 
especially along and east of US 77 this weekend and along and east
of US 281 by mid week. Seasonal to slightly above normal 
temperatures continue through Thursday. Patchy shallow fog may 
develop across the ranchlands each night. 

Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the lower Texas
coast this weekend, with an increasing swell and period along the
western Gulf. The Heat Risk will gradually increase from minor
(level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) across the RGV through
the week as humidity increases. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
an ENE breeze Friday afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Generally favorable winds and seas on Friday give way to an
increasing easterly swell and chop Saturday through Sunday across
coastal and offshore waters. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms persists through the forecast period, especially
offshore, as weak mid-level low pressure slowly works into the
southwestern Gulf. Waterspouts may be possible near any showers or
thunderstorms this weekend and next week, especially offshore. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  91  74  90 /   0  20  20  40 
HARLINGEN               69  92  71  90 /   0  20  10  40 
MCALLEN                 72  96  74  94 /   0  20  10  30 
RIO GRANDE CITY         69  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  86  79  86 /   0  20  30  40 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  89  74  88 /   0  20  20  40 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman