751 
FXUS66 KLOX 030314
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
814 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...02/646 PM.

A series of weak disturbances will keep persistent night through 
morning low clouds going across most of the coasts and some lower
valleys through Friday. Weak offshore flow will bring mostly 
sunny skies to the area for the weekend. Gusty winds are expected 
Friday afternoon and Friday night for Southwest Santa Barbara 
County, and some mountain and desert locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...02/813 PM.

***UPDATE***

A closed upper low will move across northern and Central 
California tonight through Friday. Rain chances will mostly 
remain north of the area where there are stronger frontal
dynamics. However there is a low chance (10-20%) of light rain in
far north to northeast San Luis Obispo County this evening, with
even lower chances affecting eastern San Luis County and the 
northern mountain slopes later tonight and Friday. The main local 
impact of the passing low will be to push some mid to upper level 
clouds across areas north of Point Conception through Friday. In 
addition, winds will increase in some areas behind the low 
starting this evening, and still further Friday afternoon and 
Friday night. 

Gusty northwest winds over portions of Southern Santa Barbara 
County should remain sub- Advisory levels tonight (35 to 40 mph)
but will likely increase to Advisory strength Friday afternoon 
through late Friday night. Increasing winds are also expected for
the Interstate 5 Corridor and the western Antelope Valley during 
this time. Northwest to north winds up to 35 mph with gusts 40 to
50 mph are expected.

For tonight into Friday morning, stratus coverage should be
limited to the Central Coast and Santa Ynez Valley, and the coast
and coastal valleys of LA and Ventura Counties. Weak offshore
winds should keep the area clear Friday night into Saturday 
morning. 

A cooling trend will continue into Friday thanks to the upper low,
followed by warming on Saturday caused by rising heights and
offshore flow. 

***From Previous Discussion***

By Saturday the upper low will move east to Utah, but then on 
Sunday the trough takes on a positive tilt and moves back over the
area through early next week. Models are showing another 
developing Low west of Washington by next  Thursday that will 
bring another chance of rain to next weekend.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/215 PM.

For the extended, models continue to exhibit good synoptic 
agreement. At upper levels, a trough will remain over Central CA 
Sunday and Monday then will lift out of the area. Near the 
surface, onshore flow increases on Sunday/Monday, but weakens on 
Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Marine layer stratus/fog should increase in coverage 
Sunday/Monday with increasing onshore gradients and lowering H5 
heights. However for Tuesday/Wednesday, the stratus coverage 
should diminish as H5 heights rising and offshore trends in the 
surface gradients. Other than any stratus, skies should remain 
mostly clear through the period. 

As for temperatures, a gradual cooling trend can be expected for
Sunday and Monday with increasing onshore flow and lowering H5
heights. However, those temperatures will rebound on Tuesday and 
Wednesday as H5 heights rise and onshore surface gradients relax. 

A bit further out into the Thursday/Friday time frame, there is
the possibility of some subtropical moisture moving into the area
as models indicate another tropical storm off the Baja Mexico 
coast. Confidence in any details remains very low at this time as
models are in disagreement about the track. However, it is 
something to watch for the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0303Z.

At 0121Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of 
the inversion was at 1000 ft with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD and KWJF).
Moderate confidence in remaining 00Z TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY 
restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours, while flight categories may 
be off by one or two. Gusty N to NW winds are expected to affect
many sites after 21Z Fri, lasting into Fri night for the desert
airfields.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Flight cat changes may be 
off by +/- 3 hours. 25% chance of IFR CIGs through 12Z Friday 
once clouds arrive. No significant east wind component expected 
through the forecast period, but gusty westerly winds are expected
after 22Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Flight cat changes may be 
off by +/- 2 hours. 30% chance for brief IFR cigs.

&&

.MARINE...02/110 PM.

A GALE Warning has been issued for the waters around Point 
Conception and south to San Nicolas Island as well as across the 
entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel Friday afternoon into the 
late night hours. Along with hazardous seas, winds up to 40 kts 
are possible. Localized GALE force wind gusts are possible for the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday afternoon (PZZ645).

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger for much of the
time across the outer waters and portions of the inner waters thru
Saturday night. Thereafter, conditions generally look to remain
below SCA criteria through mid-week. 

For the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties, high 
confidence in widespread SCA level NW to W winds Friday afternoon 
through evening, including nearshore (specifically Long Beach &
northward). There is a fairly high chance for GALE force winds
near Anacapa Island during this period. Thereafter, conditions 
generally look to remain below SCA criteria through mid-week. 

Seas will be large and very choppy, with seas peaking between 8 
and 12 feet for the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast 
waters, and 5 to 8 feet for the inner waters south of Point 
Conception, highest in the Santa Barbara Channel.

Consider adjusting any plans or remaining in safe harbor on 
Friday when conditions are forecast to be the worst.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM Friday to 5 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday
      for zones 378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday
      for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...jld/cc
AVIATION...Phillips/Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...jld/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox