148 
FXHW60 PHFO 030157
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
357 PM HST Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds will continue through 
Saturday morning in response to an approaching cold front in the 
North Central Pacific, allowing localized daytime sea breezes and 
overnight land breezes to continue. Moderate trades are forecast
to build back late Saturday and remain into early next week as a 
new high builds north of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds will continue through 
Saturday morning in response to an approaching cold front in the 
North Central Pacific. The front will stall out north of the
islands and so will not have a direct impact on our weather.
Soundings taken this afternoon show relatively stable conditions, 
with the inversion between 7 and 8 kft. Current radar and 
satellite data show small, isolated showers moving generally 
northwest this afternoon. Most showers are passing north and south
of the islands, likely due to downstream partial blockage from 
the Big Island.

The light winds and Big Island blockage have allowed sea breezes
and interior cloud build-ups and isolated showers over the 
islands this afternoon. Land breezes will clear out the islands 
tonight, followed by a diurnal repeat Friday and Friday night. 
Depending on the exact wind direction, downstream convergence from
island-mountains has the potential to produce plumes of clouds 
and showers that would extend west to northwest from each island, 
and could anchor showers over windward and southeast sides of the 
smaller islands. This could override the land breeze suppression 
at times.

Latest models indicate easterly trades will build back into the 
region Saturday afternoon and continue into early next week as a 
new surface high develops and strengthens far to the north of the
state. However, global models continue to differ regarding the 
location of a potential trough that will likely develop north of 
the islands by the middle of next week. This results in a 
relatively low-confidence forecast for Wednesday and next 
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

An ESE wind regime with embedded showers will continue through 
tonight and into tomorrow. Today's wind flow has also allowed for 
sea breezes to develop over some leeward areas, bringing clouds 
and isolated showers to those areas. MVFR conditions will be 
possible in any showers through the period. Otherwise, VFR will 
prevail. 

Low level wind shear is possible over Kahului and nearby areas 
from 500 ft. to the surface through the evening due to gusty NE 
winds near the surface and weaker ESE winds aloft. These 
conditions are unlikely to persist overnight as the surface winds 
gradually weaken and become variable. 

No AIRMET's are currently in effect. AIRMET Sierra could be 
issued as showers develop, especially in the overnight to early 
morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure northeast of the state will continue to 
a northeast track through Friday as a front moves north of the 
area. Light to moderate east southeast winds have developed over 
the forecast waters and will hold through Friday giving way to 
localized land and seabreezes over leeward waters. High pressure 
will build in from the northwest allowing moderate to locally 
fresh trade winds to return Saturday through Sunday. A trough may
develop northeast of the state early next week, weakening winds 
to light and variable. 

A small medium to long period northwest (310-320 deg) swell from 
Tropical cyclone Neoguri has peaked and will decline through 
Friday. A moderate, medium period north northwest (330 deg) swell 
generated from the current low tracking across the northwest 
Pacific is expected to fill in on Saturday, peak Sunday just below
High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria for north facing shores, and 
slowly fade into early next week. Another small medium to long 
period swell from the northwest (320 deg) is expected to fill in 
Monday, peak Tuesday and decline through the middle of next week.

The current small, long period southwest (210 deg) swell will
continue to build through tonight peak Friday before slowly  
declining into early next week. Another small, long period
southwest swell may arrive late Sunday and build into early next
week before subsiding. Surf along east- facing shores will mainly 
remain below average into early next week with the a slight boost 
Saturday into Sunday as moderate to fresh trades briefly return.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wind speeds will remain below critical fire weather thresholds 
for the next seven days. Temperature inversion heights across the 
state will range from 7,000 to 8,500 feet for the remainder of
today and Friday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Parker/Thomas
AVIATION...Trotter/Farris
MARINE...Almanza
FIRE WEATHER...Parker/Thomas