355 
FXUS63 KIND 030146
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
946 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with unseasonably warm afternoons through early next week

- Drought is expected to persist and worsen across central Indiana

- Next best chance for rain is Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Cirrus continues to drift across the forecast area this evening with 
light winds and comfortable temperatures. 01Z temps ranged from the 
mid 60s into the lower 70s in most locations.

The presence of the strong surface ridge to the east will remain the 
primary influence across the forecast area overnight. Cirrus will 
shift east late tonight with skies gradually clearing. While the 
expectation is for dry weather to continue...there is a subtle upper 
low drifting through southern Illinois currently. There is a small 
but non-zero risk for a few showers to develop near the feature in 
the predawn hours as it drifts east. This looks more plausible to 
our southwest closer to the Ohio River and across western Kentucky 
where isolated activity is ongoing this evening...but will continue 
to monitor overnight.

Lows will fall into the 50s. Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through the period as 
surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS remains in control. 
Light southerly flow at the surface will help to gradually increase 
dewpoints. While precipitation is unlikely given very weak forcing, 
a stray shower cannot be ruled out with subtle low-level moisture, 
primarily during peak heating on Friday. Expected coverage will be 
very isolated at best so decided to not add any mentionable POPs.

Gradually increasing dewpoints combined weak southerly flow should 
keep overnight temperatures more mild compared to last night. Look 
for lows to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another similar 
forecast is then expected on Friday with highs in the 80s and the 
aforementioned very low chance for a stray shower. Highs are likely 
going to be a few degrees higher compared to today thanks to a 
warmer start in the morning. More diurnal cu should also develop 
with slightly greater low-level moisture across central Indiana. RH 
values remaining above 30 percent and light winds will keep fire 
weather concerns low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A dry and warm pattern will remain in place on Friday through 
Monday. Rain chances will return on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday night through Monday...

Models continue to suggest strong ridging aloft will remain in place 
over Indiana through Sunday with strong subsidence in place.
Forecast soundings show a dry column through the period so mostly 
sunny days and mostly clear nights will remain in play. Look for 
highs in the 80s to persist, providing an extension of summer-like 
weather. These values will be about 15-20 degrees above normals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Models depict the upper flow becoming more southwesterly on Tuesday 
ahead of an approaching upper trough. This will allow gulf moisture 
to stream northward across Central Indiana along with at least a 
modest increase in large scale ascent. Furthermore, models hint at a 
cold front pushing toward Indiana on Tuesday before slowly crossing 
on Wednesday. Warm and moist southerly flow within the lower levels 
ahead of the front will also help moisture to stream across Indiana, 
supporting dew points reaching the 60s and our next best chance for 
rain. 

Models forecast soundings depict sufficient mid level moisture for 
precipitation and a trend toward saturation with pwat values over 
1.5 inches. This is on days 5-6, thus confidence is low. Spaghetti 
model plots for the GFS ensemble show a wide variance in solutions 
which highlights the higher uncertainty. An inverted trough moving 
into southeast portions of the CONUS should provide the bulk of 
available moisture. However, confidence remains limited on how much 
moisture gets pulled northward with the approaching system from the 
northwest. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the cold 
front towards the middle of next week. Diverging model solutions 
leads to some uncertainty on how much of a cooldown will occur 
though.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 611 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through Friday with a strong high 
pressure ridge to the east. Cirrus will drift across the Ohio Valley 
tonight gradually diminishing in coverage for Friday. Once again 
cannot rule out a few diurnal cu for the afternoon. Light and 
variable winds overnight will become southwest on Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma/Melo
AVIATION...Ryan

324 
FXUS63 KIND 030220
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
946 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with unseasonably warm afternoons through early next week

- Drought is expected to persist and worsen across central Indiana

- Next best chance for rain is Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Cirrus continues to drift across the forecast area this evening with 
light winds and comfortable temperatures. 01Z temps ranged from the 
mid 60s into the lower 70s in most locations.

The presence of the strong surface ridge to the east will remain the 
primary influence across the forecast area overnight. Cirrus will 
shift east late tonight with skies gradually clearing. While the 
expectation is for dry weather to continue...there is a subtle upper 
low drifting through southern Illinois currently. There is a small 
but non-zero risk for a few showers to develop near the feature in 
the predawn hours as it drifts east. This looks more plausible to 
our southwest closer to the Ohio River and across western Kentucky 
where isolated activity occurred earlier this evening...but will 
continue to monitor overnight.

Lows will fall into the 50s. Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through the period as 
surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS remains in control. 
Light southerly flow at the surface will help to gradually increase 
dewpoints. While precipitation is unlikely given very weak forcing, 
a stray shower cannot be ruled out with subtle low-level moisture, 
primarily during peak heating on Friday. Expected coverage will be 
very isolated at best so decided to not add any mentionable POPs.

Gradually increasing dewpoints combined weak southerly flow should 
keep overnight temperatures more mild compared to last night. Look 
for lows to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another similar 
forecast is then expected on Friday with highs in the 80s and the 
aforementioned very low chance for a stray shower. Highs are likely 
going to be a few degrees higher compared to today thanks to a 
warmer start in the morning. More diurnal cu should also develop 
with slightly greater low-level moisture across central Indiana. RH 
values remaining above 30 percent and light winds will keep fire 
weather concerns low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A dry and warm pattern will remain in place on Friday through 
Monday. Rain chances will return on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday night through Monday...

Models continue to suggest strong ridging aloft will remain in place 
over Indiana through Sunday with strong subsidence in place.
Forecast soundings show a dry column through the period so mostly 
sunny days and mostly clear nights will remain in play. Look for 
highs in the 80s to persist, providing an extension of summer-like 
weather. These values will be about 15-20 degrees above normals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Models depict the upper flow becoming more southwesterly on Tuesday 
ahead of an approaching upper trough. This will allow gulf moisture 
to stream northward across Central Indiana along with at least a 
modest increase in large scale ascent. Furthermore, models hint at a 
cold front pushing toward Indiana on Tuesday before slowly crossing 
on Wednesday. Warm and moist southerly flow within the lower levels 
ahead of the front will also help moisture to stream across Indiana, 
supporting dew points reaching the 60s and our next best chance for 
rain. 

Models forecast soundings depict sufficient mid level moisture for 
precipitation and a trend toward saturation with pwat values over 
1.5 inches. This is on days 5-6, thus confidence is low. Spaghetti 
model plots for the GFS ensemble show a wide variance in solutions 
which highlights the higher uncertainty. An inverted trough moving 
into southeast portions of the CONUS should provide the bulk of 
available moisture. However, confidence remains limited on how much 
moisture gets pulled northward with the approaching system from the 
northwest. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the cold 
front towards the middle of next week. Diverging model solutions 
leads to some uncertainty on how much of a cooldown will occur 
though.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 611 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through Friday with a strong high 
pressure ridge to the east. Cirrus will drift across the Ohio Valley 
tonight gradually diminishing in coverage for Friday. Once again 
cannot rule out a few diurnal cu for the afternoon. Light and 
variable winds overnight will become southwest on Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma/Melo
AVIATION...Ryan