436 
FXUS63 KLMK 030138
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Chance for an isolated shower/thunderstorm along our western 
   counties this afternoon and tonight. 
 
*  Dry and warm weather through this weekend. 

*  Rain chances increase early to middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a plume of cirrus 
extending across western KY and southern IN at this hour, with a few 
low- and mid-level convective debris clouds also being observed. 
Across most of central KY, clear or mostly clear skies are present, 
which combined with light winds has allowed for efficient 
radiational cooling since sunset. Temperatures across the area 
exhibit a 10-15 degree split between urban areas/ridgetops and rural 
areas/valleys.

As we head through the rest of the night, an area of mid-level 
moisture will continue to linger across western KY and southwest IN, 
with greater low-to-mid level cloud cover into Friday morning. While 
overall forcing is weak, there may be enough moisture combined with 
subtle support from a relatively weak spot in the upper ridge for a 
few showers to develop west of I-65 early Friday morning. Have 
slightly increased PoPs but will generally keep a dry forecast (<15% 
PoP) into tomorrow given a lack of confidence and limited coverage. 
Otherwise, patchy river valley fog could develop where clear skies 
persist overnight. Temperatures should range from the mid 50s to the 
low 60s for lows Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Temps have climbed into the low and mid 80s across the area under 
mostly sunny skies. As was discussed before, seeing an area of 
agitated cu across west central KY where a weakness in the upper 
ridge is noted along with some positive area between the LFC and the 
H6 inversion on soundings. ML CAPE values are reaching up round 500 
J/KG but are also mitigated by pitiful mid level lapse rates. A few 
blips on radar are showing up across western KY, and given high 
DCAPE thanks to dry low levels, could get a few weak wind gusts out 
of collapsing updrafts. As a result, will keep some 20% chances 
across our far western CWA through the afternoon and early evening 
to account for a stray shower or two associated with this agitated 
cu field, modest instability axis, and potential for "chain 
reaction" triggering.

Otherwise, look for a quiet overnight with perhaps a few very light 
showers or sprinkles lifting northward toward our NW CWA by tomorrow 
morning. Some patchy valley and river valley fog is possible along 
with lows mostly in the 55 to 60 degree range.

Friday brings another warm/hot day with temps peaking mostly in the 
mid 80s. A few upper 80s even possible, however some sky cover could 
limit that a bit. Perhaps a few sprinkles or very light showers 
across our NW in the AM, otherwise quiet and dry conditions continue 
under the upper ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The Weekend...

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue to dominate 
our pattern through the weekend. This will keep us well above normal 
for temperatures, with continued/worsening dry conditions to go 
along with it. The upper ridge axis will steadily slide eastward 
through this period, so we will be starting to see the end of the 
dominant upper ridge by the end of the weekend. Saturday and Sunday 
highs will mostly be in the low and mid 80s for highs (call it 82-
87). Meanwhile, look for comfortable lows in the 50s to around 60 
each morning. Patchy river valley fog will probably continue to be a 
common theme each night.

Monday - Thursday...

The upper ridge steadily breaks down in response to a digging 
northern CONUS trough early week, and then completely loses the 
battle by mid week. We'll likely still hold onto mostly dry 
conditions for early week (small shower/storm chances), but the best 
chances will arrive mid week (Wednesday), when the trough axis sags 
into the area along with a surface cold front trailing from an 
eastern Canada low. Highest pops will continue to be Wednesday, with 
gradually "cooling" temperatures early to mid week. Still looking at 
highs in the low 80s on Monday, around 80 Tuesday, and then into the 
70s by Wednesday.

Thursday looks to be dry once again in the post frontal regime as 
surface high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front. 
Could see some lows in the 40s by Thursday AM, with highs on 
Thursday more seasonable in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

No significant changes to the forecast with this update. VFR 
conditions are expected through the current forecast period. There 
is a pool of greater moisture about 5-10 kft AGL west of HNB and BWG 
that has helped to fire isolated showers and storms this afternoon. 
As that area of moisture meanders across the region tonight, a 
scattered 5 kft cloud deck may try to develop, continuing into 
Friday morning. Winds should be light and generally SE overnight, 
becoming SW around 5-10 kt after sunrise Friday. Winds should become 
lighter during the afternoon and evening hours Friday, with the cu 
field gradually dissipating by tomorrow evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CSG