National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDUNR
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDUNR
Product Timestamp: 2025-09-28 23:48 UTC
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778 FXUS63 KUNR 282348 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 548 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions with above average temperatures through Thursday. - Elevated fire weather conditions possible throughout the week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Ensemble guidance (GEFS/ECMWF) supports the evolution of the upper ridge eastward across the northern Plains and into the Midwest through Monday, with a thermal ridge building over the region. Models have shifted toward keeping this ridge over our area through much of week allowing for the continuation of dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures to persist for much of the upcoming week. There is a very low end chance for some high-based convection to develop along the Black Hills but confidence is very low so again did not mention PoPs in this forecast update. Taking a long into the long term forecast, models eventually kick out the ridge and bring in the long wave trough into the region. This will still depend on what occurs on the east coast with the tropical systems. At this time we will bring back cooler and active weather into the forecast for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 545 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Isolated showers/thunderstorms will persist across NE WY/northern Black Hills through the first part of this evening. Then quieter weather is expected for the much of the forecast period. Isolated storms may return to NE WY/northern Black Hills late Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 128 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for much of next week as dry conditions will continue across much of the region. Minimum relative humidity values for much of the week will range between 20-30% across the Black Hills and eastern Wyoming. The limiting factor for a higher fire condition will be the light southerly winds that may occasionally gust up to 25 mph throughout the week. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...Woodward