698 
FXUS62 KILM 281815
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
215 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic moisture will interact with a frontal boundary
lingering just offshore to keep conditions unsettled for the 
next few days. A drying trend will commence mid to late week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stalled mid-upper trough will evolve during this period as a ridge 
noses in from the Ohio Valley, forcing the trough to consolidate 
into a broad closed low centered over the southern Appalachians. 
This will cause the flow aloft to back from southwesterly this 
afternoon to southerly tonight, then southeasterly on Monday. As a 
result, tropical moisture and vorticity associated with T.S. Imelda 
will be funneled into the forecast area, with pwats as high as 2-
2.2", which is well-above the 90th percentile and near the average 
daily max from observed soundings at CHS and MHX. At the surface, 
broad high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift eastward 
tonight, veering the low-level flow from northeasterly to easterly, 
which will bring showers onshore from this evening through tonight. 
Then, as vorticity from T.S. Imelda is siphoned northward, expect an 
expansive shield of rain to lift northward and continue through most 
or all of Monday. Rainfall totals through this period should average 
around 1-1.5" near the coast with lesser amounts inland. Something 
to be wary of is the potential for a heavy band of rain to set up in 
a north-south fashion over some part of the forecast area on Monday, 
leading to isolated peak totals as high as 3-4" in localized areas. 

Temperatures will be significantly muted during this period owing to 
cloudy skies and frequent rain. Where a break in the rain and some 
thinning of the clouds occur, highs could reach the mid-upper 70s. 
Otherwise, expect temps to remain stuck in the low-mid 70s where 
rain is most persistent.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
All but assured at this point TD Nine will have no 
impact on our weather conditions through mid week. That being 
said...the deep sub tropical plume which would have been in place 
anyway will be present and active. An old frontal boundary will 
meander along the coast and this is of course a recipe for 
significant rain. The best forcing and deep moisture are aligned 
early Tuesday when qpf could total in excess of an inch in six 
hours. This is mainly confined to the Cape Fear region. Storm total 
qpf amounts have increased a bit to show more 3 plus inches again 
mainly along coastal areas. The relative prolonged nature of the 
rain should preclude a Flash Flood Watch. No impactful changes in 
temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the 
lower to middle 60s.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High amplitude pattern...once again somewhat typical of 
the season will be in place with strong ridging across the 
Mississippi Valley. At the surface this leads to an elongated axis of 
high pressure centered well to the northeast. The only pops to speak 
of area along coastal areas late in the period as the pattern hints 
of a change but these are of course low confidence. Temperatures 
will of course be on the cool side with highs in the lower to middle 
70s early and lows well into the 50s. By the weekend expect some air 
mass modification as highs trend toward 80 and lows moreso in the 
60s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR cigs remain the primary concern through this afternoon, 
although a general trend toward VFR is expected with time as daytime 
heating helps to mix out low-level clouds. Nevertheless, passing 
showers and associated brief reductions in cigs and vis remain 
possible, mainly near the coast. Otherwise, expect another night of 
IFR to LIFR restrictions due to low cigs after midnight, with 
increasing shower coverage expected to bring frequent MVFR vis 
restrictions starting late in the night, with brief IFR to LIFR 
possible in a passing heavy shower or thunderstorm. Gusty winds to 
around 20 kts will pick up by late morning and continue thereafter.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions will continue as clouds and rain 
are brought northward from Imelda. Widespread MVFR to IFR vis and 
cig restrictions should improve from Wednesday onward, but gusty 
winds will continue through most or all of the week.




&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...
High pressure will shift eastward across the Ohio 
Valley, resulting in increasing northeast winds on Monday. In 
addition, as swells from Humberto and T.S. Imelda arrive, expect 
deteriorating marine conditions via increasing swells on Monday, 
with a Small Craft Advisory in effect from late morning onward as 
seas reach or exceed 6 feet and gusts pass 25 kts, at least in the 
SC waters. 

Monday Night through Friday...
Small craft to perhaps Gale conditions will be in place 
early on...basically through Tuesday via the building pressure 
gradient between a lingering coastal front and high pressure to the 
northeast. Winds will be from the northeast and with gusts the 
aforementioned gale warning could be warranted. For mid to late week 
the northeast flow will keep the threat for a headline will be in 
place. Significant seas will be prolific early on with a range of 8-
13 feet and trend down slowly in time following the trend of the 
winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for 
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...SHK/ABW