121 
FXUS63 KFGF 281724
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1224 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather is expected across portions of northwest
  and west central Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

South to southwest winds prevail this afternoon across much of
the area. A few gusts to near 20 mph are evident in west central
Minnesota and the southern Red River Valley in response to a
slightly stronger pressure gradient to our east. Temperatures
are in the low to mid 70s and are on track to reach the lower
80s this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

We remain cloud free this morning, with temperatures in the 40s
and 50s. Refreshed grids a bit, otherwise no changes are needed
to the going forecast at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Clear, quiet and calm early this morning when looking at radar
and satellite. Persistent ridging will keep this period of calm
over our region through the early workweek. A fast hitting 
shortwave will pass through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers
look to be limited in areal coverage to near the International 
Border as the wave quickly propagates to the north and east. 
Troughing over the western US will set up southwesterly flow 
over the Northern Plains by late week. This will increase 
precipitation chances towards next weekend, but right now
guidance gives the idea of "waves" of systems that cause 
occasional chances for rain with breaks in between, not one 
larger system that would provide more persistent and widespread 
precipitation.

...Near Critical Fire Weather...

Another afternoon of above average temperatures, low dewpoints 
and a well mixed boundary layer will combine to create near 
critical fire weather across portions of northwest and west 
central MN. Looking upstream in SD/central ND, dewpoints are 
higher, and these values will be advecting into our region due
to a south/southwest wind by this afternoon. Winds will be 
stronger then yesterday due to a tighter pressure gradient, with
gusts topping out around 20 knots. All told, decided to issue 
an SPS for the forested areas of MN where the lower RH values 
look to reside. If higher dewpoints fail to advect as far east 
as currently forecasted, another tier of counties to the west of
the current SPS will likely see near critical fire weather 
conditions as well for a few hours this afternoon. Near critical
fire weather will continue to be a concern through midweek. The
lowest RH and highest winds still look to not overlap though on
any one given day, which should alleviate critical fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
South to southwest winds are expected to continue this
afternoon, with KDVL seeing a slow shift to the east to
northeast overnight. A few wind gusts to near 20 knots are
possible this afternoon at KBJI and KTVF before diminishing this
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Lynch