784 
FXUS62 KMLB 281149
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
749 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

- Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for coastal portions of
  east-central Florida, as Tropical Depression Nine organizes over
  the Bahamas, then moves parallel to the Florida coast late today 
  through Monday

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions begin this evening and
  continue through this week, as incoming long-period swells and 
  persistent north to northeast winds lead to life- threatening 
  rip currents and beach erosion

- Rounds of scattered showers to increase as T.D. Nine makes its
  closest approach tonight into Monday; locally heavy rainfall is
  possible along the immediate coast

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Today-Tonight...A weak front stalls across the local area today, as 
a mid/upper level trough continues over the Southeast US. Meanwhile, 
what is currently Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to move 
northward through the Bahamas and strengthen into a Tropical Storm. 
As T.D. Nine better organizes, outer bands of showers and embedded 
storms are expected to begin to move into the local area. A gradient 
will exist from northwest to southeast across the county warning 
area, with the highest, tropical PWATs (2+") generally south of the 
Cape into the afternoon, spreading northward into tonight. This will 
make for a gradient in PoPs, with 50-60% north and west of I-4 and 
60-70% to the south and east.

Showers, with embedded lightning storms, have developed along a 
stalled remnant outflow boundary from convection Saturday evening, 
located offshore stretching southwest to northeast from near Vero 
Beach as of around 2 AM. CAMs suggest convection will continue to 
develop along this boundary through sunrise, before onshore flow 
strengthens mid-morning into this afternoon and begins to push 
additional showers and storms onshore. Rainfall accumulations of 1-
2" are forecast generally along the coast south of Cape Canaveral, 
with isolated higher totals possible. Training or persistent bands 
of showers could cause minor flooding concerns, with much of the 
forecast area highlighted in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall 
by the Weather Prediction Center. Multiple rounds of gusty showers 
and a few storms will continue through tonight, as T.D. Nine 
parallels the coast.

As T.D. Nine strengthens and moves northward, breezy conditions will 
develop from south to north across east central Florida. 
Northeasterly winds will increase to 10-15 mph inland and 15-20 mph 
along the coast by this afternoon and remain breezy into tonight. 
Wind gusts 20-25 mph this afternoon will build to up to 30 mph along 
the coast overnight, with locally higher gusts in any bands of 
showers. Be sure to secure any lose items, including holiday 
decorations, by this evening, as conditions will continue to 
deteriorate overnight. Highs this afternoon will be moderated by 
onshore flow at the coast, remaining in the mid-80s, with upper 80s 
to near 90 over the interior. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s.

Beach and boating conditions will also degrade through the day and 
into tonight. A High Risk of rip currents is forecast today. 
Residents and visitors should stay out of the surf.

Monday-Tuesday...T.D. Nine is forecast to strengthen from a tropical 
storm into a hurricane as it continues to parallel the east coast of 
Florida Monday. Then, the storm is expected to make a fairly hard 
right turn, as an upper level trough digs eastward through the 
Southeast US. Locally, the main hazards from this system will 
continue to be windy northerly winds and coastal impacts. Tropical 
Storm Watches remain in effect for all local coastal areas east of I-
95 as of the 2 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center. 
Tropical storm conditions will be possible Monday along the coast, 
as the storm makes its closest approach. Portions of the coast have 
up to a 30-40% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, 
with gusts up to 45 mph. Inland, winds 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 
around 30 mph, are forecast. As the system begins to move away from 
the coast on Tuesday, winds will slacken slightly on the coast, but 
remain breezy to windy through the day out of the north-northwest.

Deep moisture (PWATs 2+") lingers over the forecast area Monday, 
with continued bands of showers and embedded storms leading to PoPs 
40-70%. Multiple rounds of showers are expected to produce 
accumulations of 1-3", with locally higher amounts up to 5" through 
Monday. The highest chance for heavy rainfall will be along the 
coast, especially in any training bands. Portions of the area remain 
under a Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Monday. By 
Tuesday, drier air begins to filter southward along the western edge 
of the wind field of T.D. Nine. PWATs falling to 1.5-1.75" and 
subsidence in the mid-levels will help to reduce PoPs to 20-40% 
across the area, with the highest chances remaining near the coast. 

Beach and boating conditions will be dangerous by early Monday 
morning. Seas building up to 8-12 ft over the nearshore waters will 
produce high surf and a very high risk for rip currents. A High Surf 
Advisory is expected for Monday and will likely need to be continued 
through at least late week. Use caution at the beach and do not 
enter the water. Coastal flood headlines may also need to be 
considered into mid-week. Wave run up to the dunes and sea walls 
over multiple high tide cycles will lead to beach erosion concerns. 

Wednesday-Sunday...Mid and upper level troughing persists into the 
weekend, as T.D. Nine is pulled eastward into the Atlantic. 
Meanwhile, high pressure builds across the northeastern portion of 
the US. Locally, lingering drier air on the western periphery of 
T.D. Nine is forecast to continue through Wednesday. Then, modest 
moisture looks to return Thursday into Friday, before deep moisture 
is advected northward this weekend as the high begins to shift 
offshore. Below normal PoPs (20-40%) Wednesday will increase through 
the period, returning to around 50% through Sunday. Global models 
disagree on the extent of precipitation late this week, so have 
trended towards NBM. Temperatures will see a cool down, with fall-
like highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday.

While T.D. Nine will be moving away from the area, strong high 
pressure to the north will maintain a tight pressure gradient and 
breezy conditions into the weekend. North to north-northwesterly 
winds Wednesday will veer onshore late week and remain 10-15 mph 
over the interior and up to 15-20 mph along the coast each 
afternoon. These winds, combined with incoming long period swells 
from distant Major Hurricane Humberto will maintain dangerous beach 
and boating conditions through at least Sunday. The High Risk of rip 
currents is likely to continue through at least this weekend, as 
well as possibly a High Surf Advisory. Residents and visitors 
planning to head to the beach should remain out of the surf. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through much of this 
morning will deteriorate this afternoon and become dangerous
overnight, as Tropical Depression Nine strengthens and moves
northward through the Bahamas. Easterly winds around 10-15 kts 
this morning will become up to 20-25 kts this evening, as seas 
build from 2-4 ft to 5-7 ft. By Monday morning, tropical storm-
force winds are forecast for the offshore waters and will continue
through Monday night, as T.D. Nine parallels the Florida east
coast and continues northward. Seas will respond, building to 8-12
ft nearshore and 12-18ft offshore. Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect for all of the local Atlantic waters.

The storm is forecast to move eastward beginning Tuesday, then
continue into the Atlantic for the remainder of the work week.
However, strong high pressure building north of the local waters
and incoming long period swells from distant Major Hurricane
Humberto will maintain hazardous to dangerous boating conditions
through at least Friday and likely into the weekend. North-
northwesterly winds 20-25 kts Tuesday will remain at least 15-20
kts through the period as they veer onshore late week. Seas will
be slow to subside, remaining up to 10-15 ft Tuesday and lingering
up to 10-13 ft through Friday. After the Tropical Storm Warnings
are expired, Small Craft Advisories are expected to continue into
this weekend.

Bands of gusty showers with embedded lightning storms will begin
to move onshore today, as T.D. Nine continues to organize. These
bands are expected to continue through Monday night, before drier
air reduces rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Late week, onshore
flow looks to bring additional showers into the peninsula. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 749 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

TD Nine remains centered over the central Bahamas this morning, with 
a slow NNW movement. Locally, a broad boundary has setup over the 
local Atlantic waters, extending northeast from the Treasure Coast 
terminals. This line of showers with a few embedded storms will 
bring MVFR conditions to KVRB/KFPR/KSUA thru 14Z, with a secondary 
round of coastal storms arriving by 19Z. As the pressure gradient 
tightens with the nearing of TD Nine through the day, northeast 
winds increase to 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 20-22 knots this 
afternoon. Have maintained VCSH mention areawide over the next 24 
hours, with the addition of TEMPO thunderstorm chances in late 
afternoon convection. Winds will diminish overnight, becoming gusty 
again tomorrow (+20 knots) as impacts from this tropical system 
begin for all local terminals. Prevailing VFR today, but a shift to 
MVFR is likely along the coast towards the tail end of the TAF 
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  84  73 /  70  60  70  50 
MCO  89  75  86  74 /  60  30  50  20 
MLB  86  76  86  74 /  70  60  60  40 
VRB  87  75  86  74 /  70  60  60  30 
LEE  89  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  20 
SFB  88  75  86  74 /  60  40  60  30 
ORL  89  75  86  74 /  60  40  50  20 
FPR  86  75  86  73 /  70  60  60  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. 

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. 

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper