901 
FXUS64 KMAF 281138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
  this afternoon and evening across locations west of the Pecos
  River. 

- Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall, which may lead
  to instances of flash flooding over portions of southeast New
  Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor,
  and Marfa Plateau, especially during the afternoon and evening
  hours.

- A warmer and drier pattern sets up next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

An upper-level low that has moved little over the vicinity of
southern California during the past 24 hours is forecast to open
into a trough today and slowly advance toward the Four Corners
today and tonight. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase across
western portions of our forecast area in advance of this system
today, with the flow pattern also becoming increasingly difluent 
over these locations this afternoon into this evening. A very 
moist airmass will remain in place across locations west of the 
Pecos River Valley with precipitable water values up to 1.1 to 1.3
inches. Ascent will also spread over these areas within the 
increasingly difluent flow aloft this afternoon and evening, and 
we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to 
develop especially along and west of an Artesia, Carlsbad, 
Balmorhea, Alpine/Marfa line by this afternoon and evening, and we
will keep rain chances very high between 50-80 percent over these
areas. A few of the CAMs, including the 00z/06z HRRR and the 00z 
ARW have been consistently showing potential for heavy rainfall 
producing storms over western portions of the forecast area this 
afternoon and evening considering the anomalously moist PWAT 
airmass that is in place. Showers and thunderstorms will have the 
potential to be efficient rainfall producers, potentially dropping
around or just above 1" of rainfall in some areas within a short 
amount of time which could lead to flash flooding. We have opted 
to issue a Flood Watch for the Eddy County NM plains (the western 
half of this zone in particular), the Guadalupe and Davis 
Mountains, Van Horn Corridor/Culberson County, and the Marfa 
Plateau region this afternoon where pockets of very heavy rainfall
will be possible with showers/storms this afternoon and evening. 
A few storms may be capable of producing strong/gusty winds, small
hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Rain chances decrease 
considerably over central/eastern portions of the forecast area 
today and tonight. Will keep lower rain chances (20-30%) intact as
far east as the far western Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos 
region, and the Big Bend, while dry conditions are anticipated 
over the central/eastern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Rain chances
should drop off by late tonight, though we will keep low POPs 
(20-30 percent) in place through the night over western portions 
of the area ahead of the approaching upper-level trough.

The upper-level trough axis will lift across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas during the day Monday. Residual moisture
and lift associated with this system will support keeping a
continued low (20-40 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast for the western half of the area, while the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos looks to remain dry for the
most part (POPs 10 percent or less). Highs today and Monday will
be coolest over western portions of the CWA, where readings will
range in the 70s (60s higher elevations) given the extensive 
cloud cover/rain chances. Highs over the remainder of the area
will mostly range in the 80s, except for 90s along the Rio Grande. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Rain chances come to an end by Monday night as the upper-level
trough moves to the east of our region. Upper-level ridging will 
build back into the forecast area through the rest of the upcoming
week, so expect a warming trend with a return to dry weather 
conditions Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will average
above normal each day, especially during the middle to latter part
of the week when highs reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s over
much of the area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Primary aviation concern today will be in and near scattered to
numerous SHRA/TSRA that will develop across locations especially
along and west of the Pecos River today and tonight. The best
chance for convective impact will be at KCNM, where we have
included prevailing SHRA at 21Z with confidence also increasing
for TSRA impact sometime around the late afternoon/early evening
time frame. Included TSRA TEMPO there from 22Z to 02Z with this
forecast. VFR otherwise prevails outside of this activity through
the period with persistent south to southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  62  82  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 77  61  80  57 /  50  40  30   0 
Dryden                   89  65  86  61 /   0  10   0   0 
Fort Stockton            87  65  83  59 /  10  10  10   0 
Guadalupe Pass           68  57  71  56 /  80  50  30   0 
Hobbs                    81  61  79  56 /  20  20  20   0 
Marfa                    77  56  76  50 /  50  50  30   0 
Midland Intl Airport     87  65  83  60 /   0   0  10   0 
Odessa                   86  65  82  60 /  10  10  10   0 
Wink                     86  63  83  58 /  20  20  20   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon through late 
     tonight for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis 
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains 
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa 
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for Eddy 
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21