998 
FXUS63 KBIS 281127
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions
  continue through the middle of this week. 

- Mostly dry conditions continue through the middle of this
  week. Low chances for rain return at the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

The forecast remains on track.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

An extended period of quiet, warm weather continues with mostly
sunny skies and dry conditions on tap for today. Highs are 
expected to reach the 80s across most of the state, with the 
warmest temperatures in the southwest as an east CONUS upper 
high advects warmer air over the Western Plains. Through 
Wednesday, this upper high will gradually amplify into a ridge 
centered over the Great Lakes Region allowing warmer 
temperatures aloft to persist over the Northern Plains. As such,
and combined with frequent southerly flow at the surface, highs
are forecast to reach the 80s across the state most days this 
week through Thursday. Still, some upper 70 degree readings are 
possible at times, especially near the Canadian border on 
Monday.

For the most part, this pattern will maintain mostly dry 
conditions through Thursday night. However, multiple weak 
shortwaves may ride the western periphery of the ridge during 
the workweek. As a result, the NBM continues to produce very 
low, mostly non-mentionable PoPs over the forecast area. Still,
wouldn't be surprised if a few showers, possibly with a few 
rumbles of thunder, occur at some point. 

Towards the end of the week, a major change in the weather pattern
is favored as models consistently suggest a trough will dig 
into the western CONUS and break down the aforementioned ridge.
As this happens, rain chances will return to the area.
Where/when exactly, how much potential precipitation, and 
duration of potential precipitation all remain open questions. 
What maintains a higher probability, however, is a return to 
seasonable temperatures that have the potential to become below 
average by the end of the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are generally expected through the 
period, though models hint that patchy fog may develop late 
tonight in southwestern and south central parts of the state. LLWS
is likely occurring early this morning in parts of the southeast,
including at the KJMS terminal. Any LLWS should end by 
mid-morning as surface winds increase while winds aloft 
simultaneously diminish.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken