National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBRO
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO
Product Timestamp: 2025-09-28 11:20 UTC
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521 FXUS64 KBRO 281120 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 620 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 * Mainly rain-free conditions with lower humidity levels, relative to prior weeks, and seasonable temperatures are expected to persist through next week. * Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk is expected to persist through next week. * Isolated chance/coverage for a shower on Monday; better chances increase next weekend into the following week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Autumn is officially here and it certainly feels like it with lower humidity levels driven by east-northeasterly winds. This refreshing and welcomed airmass of seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels is in fact a modified Canadian airmass, tied to a strong and large ~1020 mb sfc high pressure system hundreds of miles away over the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. It's this high pressure system that's kept and will continue to keep the cool front well to our south. Over the next week, mostly rain-free weather with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels relative to prior weeks will continue as forecast models and ensembles continue to show the current high pressure system in place and another one later in the week being key fixtures to our weather pattern. There is a low grade chance (15-30%) for an isolated or rogue sea breeze shower/thundershower developing or moving inland on Monday. The greatest chances for any showers/thundershowers will be over the Gulf Waters, where we have 30-40% chances. As touched on earlier, a second and stronger Canadian high pressure system will traverse and stall over the Northeast U.S. for much of next week. This feature will be large enough to influence our weather through at least Thursday with continued rain-free weather with seasonable temperatures and still lower humidity levels compared to prior weeks with dewpoints ranging between the 50s across Brush Country to the upper 60s/low 70s near the coast. Friday through next Sunday, the aforementioned sfc high over the Eastern U.S. will steadily lose its influence over Deep South Texas. Additionally, a weak shortwave trough is expected to develop and could lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence for rainfall increases as time progresses due to what was previously mentioned. That said, expect for mainly dry weather this upcoming week with the pattern possible becoming more active/wet next weekend into the following week. Temperatures as mentioned will be near normal levels through the forecast period or through next Sunday. Daytime high temperatures are progged to be in the low to mid 90s for the most part. Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the warmest days of the week. Overnight lows are expected to range between the mid 60s over the Northern Ranchlands to the low-mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds will increase and become northeast to east later this morning into the afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected to develop later this evening into tonight. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Marine conditions are expected to remain favorable through next week with light to moderate east-northeasterly winds and low to moderate seas with wave heights between 1-3 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 74 89 74 / 20 10 40 20 HARLINGEN 91 69 90 69 / 0 10 30 10 MCALLEN 94 73 94 72 / 0 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 30 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 88 74 / 10 20 30 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...63-KC