849 
FXUS65 KVEF 280817
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
117 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue today 
  for southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern 
  Arizona.

* A low pressure system will bring breezy winds and drier air to
  the region as it approaches the region on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday.

Current radar and satellite imagery shows isolated showers and 
thunderstorms circulating around a low in northwestern Arizona, 
southern Nevada, and southeastern California. These storms will 
continue to circulate around the low through the early morning 
hours, but will be less intense than storms that occurred on 
Saturday afternoon. As this low slowly pushes east throughout the 
day it will continue to help fuel isolated showers and 
thunderstorms across southern Nevada, southeastern California, 
and northwestern Arizona this afternoon. Hazards will be similar 
to the past few days, with moderate-to-heavy rain, flash flooding,
strong outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning will be 
hazards with any storms that develop. Storms will tend to favor 
areas of higher terrain for development and will dissipate with 
the loss of daytime heating after sunset. 

An uppper-level trough approaching the West Coast will help the low 
responsible for this weekend's unsettled weather clear out of the 
region on Monday. This trough will also bring breezy winds to the 
area as well as drier southwesterly flow aloft, which will help 
to slowly scour moisture from the area early next week. 
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the week as 
troughiness persists across the Western US. Meanwhile, Tropical 
Storm Narda will continue to slowly meander north, weakening as 
she moves into cooler waters. Eventually, we will see moisture 
from the remnants of Narda get advected into southern California 
with some portions of our forecast area seeing a relative increase
in moisture during the latter half of the week. This relative 
increase in moisture looks to be short-lived as another system 
looks to flush the moisture out as it rolls through the area. 

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Primary concerns this forecast period are potential 
rounds of showers and thunderstorms that could impact the 
terminal. Late tonight through Sunday morning, showers are 
expected to develop and move over the Las Vegas Valley, though 
impacts from these will be minimal. Of greater concern is another 
round of thunderstorms expected to develop across the area during 
the afternoon, continuing into early evening. Erratic gusty 
outflow winds, heavy rain leading to MVFR/IFR conditions, and 
frequent lightning are expected, though confidence is low for 
storms to develop over the terminal. However, confidence is 
moderate in storms developing over the surrounding mountains, 
sending outflow winds into the Valley. These storms will diminish 
around sunset, with winds outside of storms remaining around 8KT 
or less, settling out of the east to southeast late morning 
through early evening, and VFR conditions prevailing with ceilings
around 10-12kft. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Lingering showers are  
expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Nevada through 
Sunday morning, with another round of widely scattered 
thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon into early evening. 
Confidence is greatest for storms to develop over southern Nevada 
and northwestern Arizona, as well as across the higher terrain of 
southeastern California and the southern Great Basin. Erratic 
gusty outflow winds, MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain, and 
frequent lightning will accompany storms that develop, with storms
expected to diminish after sunset. Outside of storms, winds will 
generally remain under 10KT and follow diurnal patterns, with 
gusty up-valley winds expected in the Owens Valley late afternoon 
through late evening. VFR conditions otherwise prevail, with 
ceilings around 10-12kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson

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