336 
FXUS63 KEAX 280018
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
718 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonally warm conditions persist through most of
  next week. High temperatures ranging in the low to mid 80s.
  &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

A fairly stagnant pattern prevails through the weekend resulting in 
multiple days without significant changes. Broad mid to upper level 
ridging remains the dominant weather feature over our area with a 
closed upper low remaining over Baja California. At the surface, we 
are currently in a pressure col as a weak cold front approaches our 
northwestern doorstep. Today, highs will range in the low to mid 80s 
with areas farther north on the lower end of that range. Late 
tonight into Sunday, the weak cold front is anticipated to begin 
moving through the northern half of our CWA before stalling out 
somewhere north of I-70 late tomorrow morning as it becomes more 
diffuse. Due to its limited strength and being so distanced from the 
parent low, it is not expected to have much impact on the area. 
Going into Sunday afternoon, the whole pattern shifts slightly to 
the east with a stout mid to upper trough over the Pacific Coast 
helping move things along. As the mid to upper level ridge axis 
moves through the area, expect Sunday highs to be slightly warmer 
than today. Highs for Sunday are anticipated to range in the mid to 
upper 80s which happens to be 8-12 degrees above normal. There is 
some uncertainty with temperatures as the stalled cold front could 
keep areas north of I-70 in the low to mid 80s.

For the start of next week, the mid to upper level trough over the 
Pacific Coast pushes the closed low over Baja California back into 
the flow as it weakens. It is anticipated to track to the 
north/northeast staying well to the west of our area, staving off 
any chances for precip through the start of next week. This trough 
over the Pacific Coast also amplifies the ridge helping it maintain 
its influence over our area. As a result, highs for most of next 
week stay above normal ranging in the low to mid 80s. Late next week 
as the trough over the Pacific Coast makes landfall in the northwest 
U.S., models begin to diverge on solutions. For now, it seems precip 
chances return sometime late next week with the approaching mid to 
upper level trough moving through the Great Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Other than fog reducing VIS to IFR/MVFR at STJ between roughly 
9z and 14z, VFR conditions under generally clear skies are 
expected through the period. Light and variable winds overnight
will become SSW around 8 knots by mid to late Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BMW