911 
FXUS63 KBIS 252351
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
651 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through 
  the weekend.

- Breezy and dry conditions on Friday could lead near critical
  fire weather conditions over parts of southwest North Dakota.

- Well above normal temperatures continue into next week, with
  low chances for rain returning by early to the middle of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Quiet weather and no clouds over the area continue. No changes
needed at this time.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Surface high pressure continues to move across the southern 
Saskatchewan bringing forth a cold front that has passed through
the state. As a result high temperatures today are a few 
degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 60s to 70s across 
the state. Tonight, overnight low temperatures are forecast to 
drop down into the mid 40s to mid 50s across the state. 

High temperatures tomorrow will warm ahead of another cold 
front. Highs are forecast to warm into the upper 70s in the 
northwest to the mid 80s. A cold front will roll through the 
area tomorrow afternoon bringing forth breezy conditions across 
the state. Winds are forecast to sit around 20 mph with minimum 
relative humidity as low as 20 percent in the southwest, which
could lead to a window of near critical fire weather conditions
in the southwest. However, this will be all depend on the fuels
status, areas like Adams county remain fairly green from recent
rain while areas like Slope and Billings Counties continue to 
dry out and cure. Winds will die down after sunset as mixing 
reduces. Surface high pressure will pass over the area Saturday 
morning which could lead to low temperatures in the lower 40s 
maybe even upper 30s. This could result in possible patchy frost
in low lying areas if low temperatures continue to trend
downward.

Upper level ridging will continue across the region through the 
weekend leading to above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
High temperatures are forecast to sit in the 70s to lower 80s 
Saturday and warming into the 80s by Sunday. High temperatures 
in the 80s are forecast to persist through the middle of next 
week. Low temperatures could even approach record high lows by 
Tuesday of next week with lows in the 60s. Chances for showers 
and thunderstorms could return by early next week. Warm 
temperatures and increased dewpoints will lead to increased 
instability across the region. In addition the ensembles are 
showing an upper level trough under cutting the upper level 
ridge resulting in increase precipitation chances sometime early
next week. However, the ensembles do differ on the timing of 
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Southerly winds overnight will shift direction to the northwest
Friday morning over far western North Dakota, and over the 
remainder of western and central North Dakota Friday afternoon 
into the early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...JJS