571 
FXUS64 KTSA 251723
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

- Patchy to areas of fog possible again late tonight and into
  early Friday morning in far eastern Oklahoma and western 
  Arkansas. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out in portions of 
  far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
  
- Dry weather with temperatures warming back above average by this
  weekend and into next week. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Today has turned out to be a very pleasant, chamber of commerce 
weather day across eastern OK and western AR. Surface high pressure 
remains west of the area early this afternoon, which continues to 
usher in a light to modest northerly breezy. Tranquil conditions 
will persist through the remainder of the afternoon and into this 
evening, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the mid-
upper 70s to lower 80s. With a drier airmass in place, temperatures 
will drop-off fairly quickly after sunset. Overnight lows tonight 
will trend towards seasonal average, generally mid-upper 50s to 
lower-60s in spots. 

Lastly, patchy to areas of dense fog may develop again late tonight 
into early Friday morning across eastern portions of the forecast 
area, especially across far northeast OK and far northwest AR, 
despite low probabilities of dense fog (10-30% chance of 
visibilities dropping below 1/2 mile) from both SREF and HREF. For 
now, added patchy fog to these areas, but widespread dense fog 
cannot be ruled out with ideal fog conditions in place for these 
locations.   

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Southerly winds return by tomorrow morning and upper-level riding 
will continue building into the region. Ridging looks to remain 
intact over the forecast area through at least the middle part of 
next week as an omega blocking pattern sets up over the central 
CONUS by this weekend. Persistent, strong ridging aloft looks to 
keep rainfall and any mesoscale boundaries unlikely through the 
entire long-term period. As such, temperatures will gradually warm 
into the upcoming weekend. After near seasonal temperatures on 
Friday, Saturday and Sunday will rise above average and are forecast 
to be the warmest days of the long-term period with widespread 
afternoon highs reaching the low-mid 80s and upper 80s west of 
Highway 75 both days. Surface ridging will build northeast of the 
forecast area by early next week, keeping winds fairly light, but 
veering more out of the east-southeast or east. Temperatures will 
stay near or just above normal through Thursday.  

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Scattered largely diurnal cloudiness should prevail through the
afternoon, with ceilings likely to remain VFR. Fog development
remains expected for the W AR terminals, with visibilities under a
mile most likely at FYV/XNA/ROG. toward sunrise. A low chance of 
similar fog development exists at BVO, but confidence is not high 
enough to include in that TAF at this time. VFR conditions can be
expected areawide by mid to late morning tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   60  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   58  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   55  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   53  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   54  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   58  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   56  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   58  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   59  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22