861 
FXUS63 KMPX 251723
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog this morning, mainly in western WI. Sunny
  skies for the rest of the day.

- Warm temperatures and sunny skies persist through the weekend
  and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Compared to the last couple nights, the fog is much patchier and 
largely confined to the typical river valleys with less of a 
presence across the MPX CWA with the sole exception of western 
WI. RNH has been wobbling between 1/2sm to 3sm visibility since 
midnight, generally favoring visibility above 1sm. As such we do
not anticipate needing another dense fog advisory for this 
morning unless things rapidly deteriorate over the next hour or 
so. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday generally in the 
upper 70s to low 80s with mostly sunny skies as upper leveling 
ridging and surface high pressure dominate our weather pattern 
over the next several days. 

Not much has changed within the forecast as quiet conditions are 
still expected through at least the next week and likely beyond 
this into early October. The upper level ridge breaks down as a 
trough slides across Canada by Saturday, however surface high 
pressure remains the dominant feature with a lack of synoptic 
scale lift within the lower levels. An increase in general cloud
cover is possible by the middle of next week with some mid-
level shortwave energy looking possible, however this will 
depend on the trajectory of a western trough that may or may not
be close enough to affect the area. The GEFS has a couple of 
members trying to produce low amounts of rainfall by Wednesday, 
however all other members are dry with only about 50 percent of 
membership showing any precipitation within the 2 week period, 
with the 'most likely' period being next weekend by October 
4th/5th. Not only do amounts vary significantly but the other 
ensembles also support an overall dry forecast with only smaller
chances for precipitation through the first week of October. 
Without a significant synoptic scale system, it seems unlikely 
that we see any kind of appreciable rain chances coming up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

VFR conditions to persist through the 18z TAF period for the 
majority of the terminals. One exception will be at EAU, where 
LAMP guidance advertises another round of IFR or lower 
visibility due to fog after ~10z.

WSW winds sustain around 10kts this afternoon. A dry cold 
frontal passage will occur from the northwest to the southeast 
through tonight. Winds will flip northwesterly behind the front 
and then continue to gradually veer easterly after daybreak 
tomorrow. Southeasterly winds are forecast to sustain around 
10kts Friday afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW. 
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. 
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Strus