297 
FXUS64 KMAF 251720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

- Increasing potential for heavy rain over westernmost higher
  terrain late this week into this weekend that may result in 
  flash flooding. 

- Fall-like and more seasonable high temperatures late this week
  into early next week before drier and warmer summer-like weather
  returns to the area by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

An upper-level shortwave trough continues to translate toward the
Mississippi Valley early this morning while ridging aloft extends
over the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Surface high 
pressure continues to build into the Rocky Mountains and the 
adjacent central and southern high plains early this morning 
behind the cold front that has advanced into northern Mexico and 
southern portions of Texas. Satellite imagery shows lingering mid 
and high level cloud cover in place over southern portions of our 
forecast area early this morning. Isolated rain showers will still
remain possible along the Presidio Valley and the southern Big 
Bend region through the early morning hours as weak impulses 
within northwesterly flow aloft move across this portion of our 
area. We will keep rain chances very low (10-20 percent) over 
these locations through early this morning. Dry weather conditions
are otherwise expected to remain prevalent across the the 
forecast area today and tonight as upper-level ridging continues 
to build in from the west. Temperatures will remain near to 
slightly below normal today as surface high pressure also 
continues to settle across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. 
Highs will generally range in the lower to mid 80s over much of 
the region, except for 70s in the mountains and in the 90s along 
the Rio Grande. Lows tonight will continue to range in the 50s and
60s. 

Shortwave ridging aloft will continue to build across much of 
west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Friday, while an upper- 
level low deepens over the Desert Southwest. Mostly sunny skies 
and dry weather conditions will continue across most of our 
forecast area underneath ridging aloft, but a zone of enhanced 
deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values 
around or slightly above 1" may spread into areas along and west 
of our higher terrain areas by Friday afternoon. This increased 
moisture and return southerly flow may aid in the development of a
few afternoon showers and thunderstorms over western portions of 
our forecast area and we will maintain a 20-40 percent chance of 
afternoon convection over these areas (highest chances in the 
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains). High temperatures will trend 
warmer with readings back to above normal in the mid 80s to lower 
90s over much of our region underneath ridging aloft. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

An upper level low over the SW CONUS dominates the upper pattern 
this weekend. This feature directs moisture into the area, which 
in combination with additional lift provided by near surface lee 
troughing over SE NM into W TX and southeast upslope winds, 
results in low to medium (25%-45%) probability of showers/storms 
over western higher terrain into SE NM plains. Highest chances 
(45%-60%) expected over westernmost parts of the forecast area 
from western Eddy County into Guadalupes and Presidio Valley. 
There remains a medium to high probability of rainfall at least 
0.50" to 0.75" for westernmost higher terrain, with amounts 
dropping off to the east. Only a few tenths of an inch expected in
foothills of western higher terrain and a few hundredths at most 
over much of Lea County, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau into 
Big Bend and points east, as the greatest lift and moisture will 
continue to be located over far western portions of the forecast 
area. Highs this weekend in the mid to upper 80s F, 70s F higher 
elevations and 80s F in surrounding foothills, upper 80s to lower 
90s F northeastern Permian Basin and Big Bend into Terrell County 
are expected. Lows fall into the mid 50s F to mid 60s F despite 
coverage of low clouds and rain chances due to dew point 
temperatures remaining below 60 F and largely in the low to mid 
50s F. Confidence has increased in messaging a flash flooding risk
for westernmost terrain, and heavy rain remains the most 
significant impact this weekend. Highest rain chances and farthest
eastward extent of rain in grids look to be Saturday night and 
Sunday afternoon. Despite this, if CAMs for Friday and early 
Saturday farther to the west are any indication, this may still 
end up being a high PoP-isolated high QPF event due to isolated 
nature of heavy rainfall.

By Monday, the lee troughing will be developing farther to the 
north of the area and weakening as the upper low itself over the 
SW US dissipates. This results in building mid to upper ridging 
and an accompanying increase in large scale sinking motion. 
Shower/storm chances consequently decrease to low (25%-35%) for 
westernmost higher terrain during the daytime and overnight, with 
highest chances over Guadalupes and Davis Mountains due to heating
of elevated terrain and mesoscale induced circulations. However, 
southwest flow aloft in the building ridging to the west of the 
area will maintain high cloud cover and keep highs in the lower to
mid 80s F, 70s F higher elevations, and upper 80s F to lower 90s 
F along Rio Grande Monday, while continued low boundary layer 
moisture/dew point temperatures keep lows similar to previous 
nights. Cloud cover begins to decrease Tuesday with increased 
sinking motion despite continued upslope southeast flow, so rain 
chances while lower will still not be zero and highs only a few 
degrees warmer. The influence of the building ridge and zonal flow
increases by midweek. Summer- like highs in the upper 80s F to 
lower 90s F, 80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F along
Rio Grande return to the area. Lows still manage to fall into 50s
F higher elevations and usual cooler spots of Lea County and 
northwest Permian Basin, while falling into 60s F elsewhere, as 
dew point temperatures stay well below 60 F. This warmth will not 
be going anywhere, as no significant cold fronts are on the 
horizon next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Winds shift to the
south and southeast this evening. Occasional gusts, but sustained
winds remain 10kts or less. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  89  62  90 /   0   0   0  10 
Carlsbad                 61  90  64  85 /   0  20  20  40 
Dryden                   64  92  66  91 /   0   0   0  10 
Fort Stockton            63  91  66  88 /   0  10  10  20 
Guadalupe Pass           61  80  60  76 /   0  30  40  50 
Hobbs                    58  87  62  84 /   0  10  10  30 
Marfa                    54  82  57  79 /   0  20  20  50 
Midland Intl Airport     61  90  65  89 /   0   0  10  10 
Odessa                   61  89  65  87 /   0   0  10  10 
Wink                     60  90  64  87 /   0  10  10  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93