816 
FXUS65 KCYS 251105
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
505 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the
  weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s.

- Gusty winds are expected in the wind-prone regions on Friday,
  but will remain below High Wind criteria.

- Elevated fire weather concerns arrive Friday with the gusty
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Clear skies are ongoing across southeast Wyoming and western 
Nebraska tonight with mostly light and variable winds. Temperatures 
have dropped into the low-40s to low-50s across the region and will 
continue to drop a few more degrees over the next several hours. 
Clear skies will continue for the remainder of the night.

Mostly quiet weather expected today and Friday as an upper-level 
ridge moves overhead and northeasterly winds aloft slowly shift more 
westerly by Friday afternoon. The Omega Block shape to the upper-
level flow remains, but the eastern branch of the "block" will be 
able to propagate easterly and eliminate the threat of a true Omega 
Block. With the ridge firmly in place, temperatures will continue to 
warm through the end of the week with quiet weather in place. Clear 
skies and light winds are expected today, while mostly clear skies 
with gustier winds are expected for Friday. An upper-level trough 
will propagate towards the region Friday morning, leading to a 
return of southwesterly winds aloft. Ample 500mb cyclonic vorticity 
advection will enable the trough to quickly push through and dry 
conditions leading up to this system will prevent any significant 
precipitation chances Friday into Saturday. Further down at 700mb, a 
more favorable gusty wind set up is expected to develop as the upper-
level trough pushes through. The base of the 700mb trough will 
traverse just to the north of the CWA, leading to a stronger 
westerly component to the 700mb winds. Additionally, with 
strengthened height gradients resulting from the passing trough, a 
meager, 30 to 35kt 700mb jet will develop with a strong westerly 
component. GFS Omega fields for Friday afternoon suggest a stronger 
downward motion across the Laramie Range, leading to increasing 
confidence in gusty winds developing in the typical wind-prone 
regions on Friday. The gusty winds are expected to only gust to 
around 40mph. High Wind criteria wind gusts, 58mph or greater, are 
not expected, but gusty conditions will be present in the morning to 
early afternoon hours before subsiding.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Pretty benign weather to start the long term with an upper level 
ridge dominating conditions across the CWA. Dry conditions coupled 
with warming temperatures, 700mb temperatures in the 9 to 10C range, 
will bring a nice Friday and Saturday to the region. Expect surface 
temperatures to climb into the 70s west of I-25 and soar into the 
low to mid 80s east of the corridor, with the warmest temperature 
across the Nebraska Panhandle. Elsewhere, an upper level trough will 
sweep across Canada Friday and Saturday while a trough digs into 
southern California. The trough over California will begin to push 
into our neck of the woods this Sunday, increasing moisture and the 
threat of precipitation primarily across our western zones which 
will continue into Monday. This will also bring cooler temperatures 
back into the region by early next week. The northern system will 
compress the ridge, increasing the gradient and winds across the 
CWA. At the tail end of the long term, models are indicating a 
pretty stout trough moving into the West Coast, which could affect 
our weather for the latter part of next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Light and variable winds expected for most of the area today. KCYS 
will see increased winds early this morning before returning to 
light and variable by 20Z. Clear skies expected everywhere.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...AM