335 
FXUS63 KIND 251054
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
654 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers linger this morning

- Fog is possible overnight tonight

- Warm and dry weather resumes Friday...through most if not all of 
  next week, with above normal highs often near the low 80s

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Early This Morning...

The upper trough axis remains to the west of the area early this 
morning, while a surface low is moving northeast through Kentucky. 
Forcing from these are producing rain across Kentucky and southern 
Indiana, with some of it in the southern forecast area.

Similar conditions should continue through the predawn hours with 
forcing continuing. Some forcing from deformation will add to the 
mix, possibly allowing the rain to spread farther north. Will have 
chance PoPs across the south and far eastern forecast area, with 
lower PoPs northwest. 

Lower level moisture will work southwest into the area, bringing in 
lower ceilings. However, at the moment, it appears that the bulk of 
any fog will remain east of central Indiana.

Today...

As the upper trough axis shifts east through the forecast area this 
morning, forcing will continue mainly across the southeastern 
forecast area. Better forcing and moisture will be east of the area, 
so will keep PoPs on the lower end. PoPs will diminish as the trough 
moves east. 

Drier air will work in from the northwest, breaking up the clouds. 
Temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 70s. 

CAMs are trying to generate isolated showers in the east this 
afternoon with lingering weak instability, but confidence is not 
high enough to include these.

Tonight...

Skies will become mostly clear this evening, and winds will 
diminish. This will set the stage for some fog development. At the 
moment, uncertainty in how much low level moisture will be around is 
enough to only mention patchy fog overnight. However, if enough 
moisture lingers, areas of dense fog are possible, especially north.

Temperatures will be cooler, with lows in the lower to middle 50s 
expected. Favored cold areas in the north could dip into the upper 
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Dry and rather warm conditions will prevail across central Indiana 
through September's final days...as another subtropical ridge builds 
northward while crossing the central CONUS...building into the 
Midwest and Great lakes by early next week.  The staunch jet 
retracted north of the Canadian border, and a disturbance attempting 
to lift northward through the Rockies...will promote a disorganized, 
yet blocked omega pattern.  Weak but broad surface high pressure 
will be aligned from the Midwest to the Northeast.  Unseasonably 
high 1000-500 mb thickness values will glide above 570 dm over the 
CWA late this weekend.

This will all translate to what is considered pleasant late summer 
weather for the region...or a tad warm and perhaps a touch humid for 
early autumn.  The last of this week's weather system's clouds 
should depart Friday morning...with mostly clear skies then 
prevailing through the weekend.  Light winds will veer through 
northerly directions into early Monday...promoting dewpoints and 
morning lows in the 50s...and afternoon highs slowly moderating from 
upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday.

The long term's second half is expected to remain rain-free, while 
systems well to our east and north weakly influence local 
conditions. Atlantic tropical system(s) approaching the Mid-Atlantic 
coast through about the Tuesday timeframe should couple with mainly 
light east-northeasterly breezes to bring more moderate humidity to 
at least a portion of the CWA, under some mid/high clouds.  The 
northern jet should spill south off the eastern side of the blocked 
ridge by the end of the period, trending to at least modest 
decreases in dewpoints and readings, albeit still a bit above 
seasonal levels.  The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the 
long term is 73/52.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Impacts: 

- Very low stratus through 14Z will be mainly IFR at KIND/KBMG...
  with VFR CIGs expected to continue at KLAF through midday
- -SHRA near KIND/KBMG through 13Z could reduce VIS to MVFR
- VFR conditions expected to return during 16Z-18Z

Discussion:

IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected through 14Z this morning near central 
Indiana terminals, excepting KHUF.  Stacked low pressure will slowly 
depart the region through midday today...ahead of dry conditions 
through the remainder of the TAF period.  CIGs are expected to mix 
out through morning heating...allowing VFR by early afternoon.

A few, mainly light SHRA can be expected near KBMG/KIND through 13Z, 
with possible brief visibility reductions to MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM