133 
FXUS62 KJAX 250625
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Summer-Like Weather through Friday. Near Record High
  Temperatures and Daily Inland Heat Indices 95-105 F. 

- Isolated Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Today

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today & Friday

- Atlantic Tropical Systems - Monitor hurricanes.gov

- Marine & Surf Zone Hazard Risk Next Week 

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Continued 'summer like' weather today but with higher rain 
chances as southwest steering flow and deeper layer moisture 
increase across the forecast area ahead of an approaching front. 
Southwest steering flow around 10 kts will bring west coast sea 
breeze showers and isolated storms inland through early afternoon 
while the east coast sea breeze drifts inland at a slower rate. 
The sea breeze merger is expected late afternoon into the early 
evening between Highway 301 and Interstate 95 corridors, with 
resultant storms drifting back toward the Atlantic coast into the 
evening with gradual decay. Better chance of convection lingering 
across southeast Georgia into the late evening with an approaching
pre-frontal trough axis. Diurnal sea breeze convection will move 
offshore to the east through midnight, with increasing rain 
chances from the west toward daybreak with the approach of a pre- 
frontal trough under southwest flow.

The main convective hazard today in storm mergers later this 
afternoon and early evening will be gusty wet downbursts. Most
locations will welcome needed rainfall over the coming days with 
all climate sites running 3-5 inch rainfall deficits for the month
of September. 

Near record highs are possible today but become less likely as 
cloudiness and storminess increases. Highs will generally range in
lower 90s inland to near 90 at the coast before the east coast 
sea breeze presses inland. Peak heat index values again range 
between 95-105 degrees. Mild nighttime lows will range in the 
lower 70s, with a few upper 60s possible well inland. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Main story for the short term continues to be a complex upper 
trough/low moving into the southeastern states Friday/Saturday, 
progressing a frontal boundary that will approach the region 
throughout the day on Friday and make its way across the region 
Friday and Night and through Saturday before stalling across the 
southeastern portion of the CWA. A fairly light southwest flow 
will persist out ahead of the front Friday as high pressure 
slides off to our east - not strong enough to pin a developing sea
breeze right at the coast, but rather closer to the I-95 
corridor. Showers and a few t'storms are likely to start streaming
northeastward ahead of the front as early as Friday morning, 
though expecting a similar area of concern as Thursday for more 
enhanced diurnal convection, which will be mainly between about 
HWY 301 to the coast in FL, and from about Waycross eastward to 
the coast in GA. The separate factor will be activity near the 
Upper Suwannee Valley and interior GA area out ahead of the main 
front, which may help to enhance activity inland later in the 
evening as well as keeping rain chances going through Friday Night
as it moves southeastward along with the front. This non-diurnal 
timing of the frontal boundary will likely taper chances for 
strong to severe t'storms somewhat, as the more energetic portion 
of the upper trough looks to move into much of the area Friday 
Night and into the first half of Saturday. Still, cannot rule out 
an isolated strong to severe storm or two Friday Evening and 
Night, especially closer to the front and more favorable 
conditions aloft the further north and west you go. 

Saturday is a bit trickier of a forecast, as the upper level flow
becomes more complex and some drier air tries to make a push into
the area from the north and west behind the front. The boundary 
is expected to be close to the FL/GA border Saturday Morning, 
making it towards the southern boundary of the CWA or so by 
SAturday Evening and Night. Given this progression and timing, 
expecting the highest concentration of convection to be found 
generally across northeast FL and near coastal areas of GA closer 
to the front and where the best PWATs around 1.7 to 2 inches will 
be found. Similar to almost a late fall type of scenario, most of 
the upper dynamics shift off to the north and northeast throughout
Saturday and Saturday Night, though will still be enough of this 
support where a few isolated strong to severe storms will be 
possible in this same area mentioned above during the afternoon 
and evening. Available instability will play more of a factor as 
well, especially near the surface as generally lower temperatures 
and more cloud cover will be likely near the boundary. 

Speaking of temperatures: more summer-like high temps will be
likely for most on Friday, especially the further south and east
you go away from the front where low 90s will be common. Mid to
upper 80s will be more the norm over far interior GA. Temps drop
closer to normal overall on Saturday as mid 80s will be common for
most, with some upper 80s over ahead such as near 
Marion/Putnam/Flagler Counties. Lows remain mild in the upper 60s 
to mid 70s Friday Night, with a sharper gradient Saturday Night 
behind vs along/ahead of the front (mid to upper 60s north and 
west, low to mid 70s south and east).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Though guidance is starting to come into a somewhat better 
agreement with respect to the upper pattern late this weekend and 
into early next week, there are still some rather major 
discrepancies that are keeping forecast confidence low for the 
long range at this time. Sunday looks like a similar setup to 
Saturday with the nearly stalled boundary persisting before 
attention shifts to the uncertainly regarding the movement but 
especially the amount of retrograding movement of the upper 
trough/cut off low into early next week. This feature and 
characteristics will have a heavy influence in either deflecting 
or pulling in a potential tropical system (invest 94L) 
north/northeast of the Bahamas towards/away from the southeast US.
Even with this uncertainty, there is still high confidence in at 
least marine and surf zone hazards early next week, including 
building seas, frequent rip currents, rough surf and potential 
tidal flooding impacts. Given the uncertainty, please continue to 
monitor the latest forecast guidance over the coming days from 
official sources including our office at weather.gov/jax and the 
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov. Even with 
uncertainty, temperatures look to remain mainly near climo for 
most of the long term period, especially late weekend into the 
start of the next work week.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Decaying debris clouds from evening convection will continue to
drift off to the east while satellite shows some lower stratus
with MVFR ceilings forming near the Gulf coast early this morning
under light SSW winds < 8 kts. Through 13z, highest confidence of
MVFR to LIFR restrictions continues at VQQ and GNV where TEMPO
groups continued. SW winds after 12z increasing with diurnal
cumulus field developing through midday. Showers and isolated
storm chances increase along the inland progressing sea breeze
into the afternoon and early evening with PROB30s included
generally between 20z-02z for all FL terminals. Convection will
drift back offshore of the local Atlantic coast after 00z with
lingering clouds overnight and better potential for low status
moving inland from the Gulf after 06z Friday morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

High pressure shifts south of the area today as a front 
approaches from the northwest. Southerly flow increases ahead of 
the front today and Friday with increasing thunderstorm chances. 
The front moves south of the local waters Saturday. Northeast 
winds increase Sunday and Monday as high pressure strengthens 
north of the region and a potential tropical system nears the 
Bahamas. Building seas and increasing winds nearing Advisory 
levels are expected early next week as the tropical systems tracks
north of the Bahamas. Local interests should monitor the latest 
forecasts on this potential tropical cyclone from the National 
Hurricane Center. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Yesterday,9/24, Gainesville tied the record high of 95 
(previously set in 1925). All other climate sites were within 1 
degree of the record high for the date. 

High temperatures will once again near daily record highs today: 

DATE     9/25     Normals 

JAX      96/2019  High: 86 
CRG      95/2019  High: 85 
GNV      96/1931  High: 87  
AMG      98/1961  High: 86 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  70  87  68 /  20  30  70  60 
SSI  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  60  60 
JAX  94  72  92  71 /  30  30  70  50 
SGJ  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  60  50 
GNV  94  71  92  70 /  30  10  60  40 
OCF  92  72  91  72 /  40  10  50  40 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$