848 
FXUS63 KAPX 250624
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery at times today. Lesser shower chances tonight into
  Friday.

- Trending drier with anomalous warmth this weekend and into 
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis: 

Broad cutoff low pressure over the central and eastern Great Lakes 
will slowly meander eastward with time today into tonight. Ample 
moisture and cyclonic flow will allow for discrete, diurnal 
convection to materialize once again, with particular focus on the 
northeast lower Michigan area. Additional fog development possible 
tonight as moisture slowly begins to move out of the area... albeit, 
probably to a lesser spatial extent. 

Forecast Details:

Currently socked in with low clouds and fog in a lot of locales, 
with most broad shower coverage hovering over Lake Huron, sending a 
couple showers to those coastal areas of northeast lower. Another 
area being drivel by convergent cyclonic flow has allowed for some 
more convectively agitated showers to materialize over the Grand 
Traverse Bay area. Anticipating this activity to continue its trek 
eastward, and with the breakdown of forcing aloft, those NW lower 
showers will taper off considerably closer to daybreak. Will have to 
wait for diurnal heating to scour out the low cloud and fog. 
Anticipating some sun to peek through the clouds this afternoon as 
temperatures warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. This should be 
enough to force some additional afternoon shower activity, 
particularly across northeast lower where forcing and surface 
convergence will likely remain greatest. Not anticipating anything 
overly heavy, and these showers will impact a rather small area. 
Honestly, most of the area probably holds dry this afternoon 
otherwise. Heading into tonight, shower coverage set to decrease 
again with loss of daytime instability. Lingering, but exiting, low 
level moisture may permit some additional fog development tonight, 
but not anticipating an overly widespread footprint with that 
activity across northern lower due to moisture set to clear out 
(including potential for clearing skies). For the eastern Yoop, 
things start out dry with a clearing trend, but a final piece of 
shortwave troughing will pass through the region later tonight and 
may bring a returning shower chance. Lows tonight 45-55, coolest in 
the interior. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

In the wake of the departing cutoff, may still contend with areas of 
northern lower east of US 131 getting clipped by the passing wing of 
shortwave troughing pivoting around the closed system and drumming 
up an afternoon shower Friday... but the bigger story likely becomes 
a potentially prolonged dry stretch. The pattern shifts with us 
returning back into a ridging regime Saturday and through the 
remainder of the forecast period. Caveat to consider is that we will 
be under some relatively quick zonal flow aloft... so may need to 
check and see if any impulses can ride that corridor of flow and 
sneak in a shower chance. For the time being, guidance is quite 
bearish to that idea. As such, anticipation is that we realize a dry 
and summer-like stretch of temperatures this weekend and into next 
week... with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s being status quo 
Saturday through Monday. May contend with an additional backdoor 
front with time next week as some disturbances try to suppress the 
ridging regime, which may put us into play for another period of dry 
easterly flow and cooler temperatures midweek and beyond, 
particularly across the eastern half of the APX footprint. With most 
of the recent rainfall remaining discrete, will have to keep an eye 
on fire weather parameters as we once again embark on a dry and warm 
spell... coupled with debris littering the forest floors from 
this spring's ice storm. More details to come. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Yet another early morning of MVFR to LIFR producing
fog/mist/stratus. And, much like the previous days, expect fog
and mist to lift fairly quickly after sunrise...with cloud bases
taking a bit longer to increase. Expect more rapid improvement
this afternoon, with skies likely scattering out at locations 
other than KAPN. Skies expected to clear this evening. No 
significant wind concerns through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB