737 
FXUS61 KBGM 241824
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundaries sweeping through the region during the next 
couple of days will bring periods of rain to Central NY and 
Northeast PA from tonight through Thursday evening. High 
pressure will return partly to mostly sunny conditions this 
weekend while attention then turns toward a couple of tropical 
systems moving north along the East Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances will increas through this afternoon and tonight as
a warm front lifts into the region by Thursday morning. No 
significant impacts are expected from this much needed rainfall 
after prolonged dryness. As we progress deeper into the warm 
sector on Thursday instability parameters and shear do 
marginally come together for the potential for stronger 
convection on Thursday. Can't completely rule out strong 
thunderstorm induced wind gusts focusing primarily from the 
Catskills down into the northern Poconos corridor. This is also 
the area where the highest axis of anomalous moisture is 
depicted with PW anomalies around 2 SD. Probabilities suggest 
high chances for more than an inch in this area with low- 
moderate chances of exceeding 2 inches...but those values should
be isolated. River and smaller stream response will be slow to 
this rainfall, but urban ponding in common low lying areas can't
be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the steady rain activity will shift into New England on 
Thursday night but lingering showers will remain in the forecast 
until the supporting upper trough and surface cold front pass early 
Friday. Broad scale synoptic drying appears to take shape in the 
models on Friday...but with NW flow across Lake Ontario we'll have 
to remain vigilent for lower level cloudiness and the potential for 
sprinkles lasting longer than indicated by the guidance in CNY. 
Downslope flow into NEPA should make for a better day overall in 
that part of our forecast area. The airmass behind the cold front is 
not excessively cool therefore seasonal temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The bulk of ensemble data shows high pressure building into the 
region with a fairly quiet period offering quite a bit of sunshine 
and warm weather into early next week. Focus turns toward some model 
guidance chaos as the predictions struggle to resolve a couple 
potential tropical systems moving through the Western Atlantic. 
Blended NBM guidance is playing the safe game by introducing low 
probabilities for showers across NEPA on Saturday and Sunday, and 
then again later Tuesday into Wednesday. Consensus among the 
ensemble means suggests that heights in the northern stream are to 
remain above average over the northeast with a tendency for 
developing troughing over the Canadian Maritimes during this period 
which should favor suppression of these tropical systems. Overall 
confidence in this period is quite low and at the very least we'll 
have to be closely monitoring for northward surging of tropical 
moisture plumes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While MVFR and VFR restrictions return this afternoon for most
terminals, more rain and low level stratus return after 0Z with
most terminals falling back down towards IFR by 6Z. There will
be several batches of heavy rain, with the first one around 6Z
and a second tomorrow after 12Z. The 6Z batch will
predominantly impact ITH to RME where as the mid morning round
tomorrow will hit BGM down to AVP. Hill top fog is possible
again tonight with the rain at BGM and ITH but confidence at
this time is low.  

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon and Night...Showers and associated 
restrictions likely.

Friday through Saturday...Generally VFR, but still a chance for
some showers.

Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB/MWG
AVIATION...AJG