National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTOP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTOP
Product Timestamp: 2025-09-20 17:20 UTC
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272 FXUS63 KTOP 201720 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -There are a few opportunities for rain this weekend, but widespread precipitation is not looking likely. -Better chances for widespread rainfall return during the upcoming workweek. -A cool pattern takes shape next week with lingering rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Early today, an upper low remains north of the area. Two areas of rain where evident on radar, one in southern Nebraska and the other in southern Kansas fueled by a nocturnal LLJ. Here, in between, scattered rain showers were trying to develop with isentropic ascent generating some lift over the area. Instability is very limited with mesoanalysis showing between 100 and 250 J/kg but around 30 kts of sfc-6km bulk shear. Am thinking that this set up with produce widely scattered rain showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm through the morning hours. Severe weather is not expected and not everyone will see rain given the scattered nature of the coverage. The afternoon hours today are looking dry with some sunshine returning. Temperatures look to top out in the mid 70s for most of the area. POPs begin to increase once again tonight with the approach of another mid-level wave on the southern edge of a low dropping out of Canada and phasing with the previously mentioned upper low. The strongest lift looks to occur Sunday afternoon, which is when POPs will be highest, especially across far eastern KS. There looks to be enough instability in place for scattered thunderstorms, but shear will be very weak and severe weather is not expected. Looking ahead into the workweek, low amplitude mid-level ridging will likely keep conditions dry on Monday. Temperatures are forecast to be around 80 degrees with southerly flow for this year's Autumnal Equinox, which marks the official start to the fall season. The next low pressure system will be digging out of the Northwest and over the central US on Tuesday. Long range models still struggle to agree on the placement of that system, but there seems to be good agreement on increasing chances (60-70%) for rain. Tuesday presents the best chance for widespread rain and QPF ranges from half an inch to one inch across the area. While models differ on the evolution of that system into midweek, most show a slow progression and keep rain chances in the forecast through that timeframe. High temperatures should be on the cool side of average, mainly in the low to mid 70s, with the upper low hovering in the region for at least part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Mainly VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cigs may briefly drop to MVFR this afternoon, particularly at KMHK. Otherwise, calm winds overnight will support fog development, including the potential for dense fog. Highest confidence in VSBY reduction is at KTOP/KFOE, but included a mention at all sites. Fog should lift by 14-15z Sunday with chances for showers or storms near terminals late or just beyond the end of this TAF period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Flanagan